Tim Draper: Macroeconomic Forces Will Dull Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle

Venture capitalist Tim Draper believes the impact of Bitcoin’s halving cycles will diminish as broader macroeconomic trends take center stage—particularly the decline of the US dollar and rising global inflation.

In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, the Draper Associates founder said Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as an «escape valve» from government mismanagement, failing banks, and fiat currency devaluation.

«The world is changing,» Draper said. «We are right in the center of an anthropological leap forward.»

Draper predicts the US dollar could become extinct within 10 to 20 years, giving way to alternatives like Bitcoin, whose capped supply and decentralized nature appeal in times of economic uncertainty.

While Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle—historically a trigger for bull markets—will still influence price movements, Draper argues its effect will be «dampened» as macro drivers like inflation, debt crises and geopolitical tensions take over as the dominant narrative.

«The halvings may have less of an effect if Bitcoin continues to rise against the dollar,» he explained. «Macro trends will become more significant.»

This view reflects a broader debate in the crypto space. Some analysts believe Bitcoin is maturing into a macroeconomic asset that no longer relies on traditional market cycles. Others, like Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca, argue the four-year rhythm still holds.

Meanwhile, analysts like Jeff Park of Bitwise and Max Keiser suggest Bitcoin—and other hard-money assets, stand to benefit long term from the declining relevance of the dollar. While stablecoins pegged to USD are seen by some as a bridge, Keiser insists they’re only a temporary fix, predicting that BTC and gold-backed tokens will eventually take the lead.

Kursiv Uzbekistan also reports that The HUMO Token project complies with Uzbekistan’s legislation and is based on principles of transparency and legal stability, the company noted.