China to Control Nearly 60% of Critical Minerals Processing by 2030

China is expected to play a dominant role in the global processing of critical minerals by 2030. The country is projected to control almost 60% of global processing capacity for lithium, rare earth elements, cobalt and graphite, according to industry forecasts.

China’s strongest position remains in rare earth elements. By 2030, it is expected to account for 86.11% of global rare earth processing, far ahead of all other countries. The United States ranks second in this segment with a share of 5.14%, giving it one of its most competitive positions in the critical minerals supply chain.

Nickel is the only major mineral where China is set to lose global leadership. Indonesia is forecast to dominate nickel processing with a share of 71.24%, driven by large-scale investments and export controls on raw materials. China will trail behind Indonesia in this segment.

Russia is expected to rank third globally in nickel processing, with a projected share of 3.26%. These estimates are based on data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and the International Energy Agency, which track long-term trends in energy transition materials.