China Hits 2025 Growth Target on Exports but Economic Slowdown Raises Concerns

China met its official economic growth target in 2025, supported by strong exports that helped offset weak domestic demand, though slowing quarterly growth has raised concerns about the economy’s underlying momentum.

Official data released on Monday showed the world’s second-largest economy expanded by about 5% last year, in line with the government’s target. However, growth slowed to 4.5% in the final quarter of 2025, the weakest pace since late 2022, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter.

Exports remained the main driver of growth, pushing China’s trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion, even as shipments to the U.S. fell sharply following higher tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. The decline was largely offset by increased exports to other markets.

Consumer spending and private investment continued to lag, weighed down by a prolonged property sector slump and cautious household sentiment. Beijing has rolled out measures to boost domestic demand, including trade-in subsidies for cars and household appliances, but economists say their impact has been limited.

Looking ahead, analysts expect China’s growth to slow further in 2026, with forecasts pointing to expansion of around 4.5%, as policymakers balance support for the economy with longer-term structural challenges.

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