Central Asia Population May Reach 96 Mln by 2040

Central Asia’s population could grow to 96 mln by 2040, placing heavy pressure on infrastructure and natural resources, the head of the Eurasian Development Bank has warned.

Nikolai Podguzov, chairman of the bank’s management board, said in an interview that demographic growth would support economic expansion but would also demand urgent upgrades in energy efficiency, water management and transport connectivity.

«By 2040, according to our estimates, Central Asia’s population may reach 96 mln. This should serve as a driver for the economy. However, such numbers will also place enormous strain on infrastructure. For sustainable development, the region needs a breakthrough in energy efficiency, modern mobility and water resource management,» he said.

Podguzov warned that annual water shortages could reach 5 to 12 cubic kilometres by 2028, with losses worsened by outdated infrastructure.

Geography also raises costs. The region is more than 3,000 kilometres from ocean ports, increasing trade expenses by 20 to 40% and cutting up to 1.5 percentage points from annual growth, a burden he described as a «tax on distance».

The bank expects the combined economy of the five Central Asian states to reach $600 bn in 2026, but says the region must address three linked challenges: demographics, transport connectivity and water security.

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