Iran should have a seat in Gulf security talks, ex-Uzbek FM says
Regional rivals in the Middle East should rely on institutions designed to manage crises rather than military deterrence, Vladimir Norov, Uzbekistan’s retired foreign minister and former secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, has argued.
In an op-ed in Diplomat Magazine, Norov backed a proposed Muscat Process that he says has been floating around since June through a «Group of Friends.» The plan calls for regular talks between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Iran and Iraq to be held in Oman before the arrangement eventually evolves into a permanent regional security mechanism.
The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with Tehran saying Tuesday it will not reopen the vital waterway until the US meets conditions attached to a June deal that collapsed. Before the current war, about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait, making the conflict a direct threat to energy markets and international trade.
Norov says that the «Iranian challenge,» unresolved rivalries, and maritime insecurity are among the major obstacles to a stable Gulf and that confidence-building with Iran must be part of any durable settlement. His preferred model combines regional dialogue with deterrence, stronger GCC institutions and ongoing partnerships with powers such as the US, Europe and China.
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Norov specifically mentions that the Muscat Process «would complement them by creating permanent mechanisms for political consultation, confidence-building and practical cooperation among the GCC states, Iraq and Iran, and even beyond.»
From Muscat talks to a Gulf OSCE
If those consultations take off, Norov envisages a small permanent secretariat in Muscat, as well as technical working groups and annual ministerial meetings.
In the longer term, the Muscat Process could become an organisation with a similar function, if not a similar structure, to that of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Possible tools might include crisis hotlines, military transparency measures, rules for avoiding maritime incidents, and early-warning mechanisms. Any expansion would require the agreement of the participating governments.
Outside powers would have a deliberately limited role. Under Norov’s model, countries and international organisations could provide expertise but would not participate in decision-making – leaving the Gulf states, Iraq and Iran to shape the regional security framework themselves.
The proposal should not, however, be mistaken for an official Omani or GCC initiative. Norov says it is already circulating diplomatically, but Oman has not formally launched a security organisation called the Muscat Process.
Oman already makes a similar argument
Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in July that all eight countries on the Gulf littoral – Oman and the five other GCC members, plus Iran and Iraq – should be involved in designing a new regional security arrangement. He argued that years of dealing with Iran through a policy of containment yielded no lasting security outcomes.
Albusaidi urged the Gulf states to reassess and recalibrate their relationships with powerful allies, including the United States, and to take more responsibility for their security.
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The argument has emerged amid the continued US-Iran conflict and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose to near three-week highs Tuesday as chances of a settlement dwindled and Iran and Oman held separate talks to regulate transit through the waterway.
