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Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Who could win this year — and why?

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Oleg Son
Oleg Son
Managing Editor, English editorial team
Nobel Peace Prize
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Donald Trump wants it. Sudanese volunteers could win it. Even the partnership keeping the International Space Station in orbit is being tipped for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, whose winner will be announced on October 9. Kursiv Uzbekistan tells of (even the least obvious) contenders for the most prestigious international award this year. 

The names attracting attention range from presidents to people running communal kitchens in a war zone. Their cases raise a question at the heart of the award: should it recognise diplomatic breakthroughs, the protection of civilians or cooperation that survives when relations between governments break down?

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce its decision at 11am in Oslo — 1pm CEST. It has received 287 nominations but keeps their identities secret for 50 years.

Here are the leading publicly discussed contenders, what they do and why they could win:

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

The Emergency Response Rooms are neighbourhood volunteer networks that provide food, medical assistance and evacuations during Sudan’s civil war. Their case for the prize rests on keeping communities alive where conventional aid operations struggle to reach people. 

Despite the name, they are not simply hospital departmenteach otherolunteers include engineers, traders and other residents who organise communal kitchens and help restore essential services. The network’s own account describes an operation built around neighbours helping neighbours.

Mykola Kuleba

Mykola Kuleba is the founder and head of Save Ukraine, which helps return Ukrainian children from Russia and Russian-controlled territory and supports their rehabilitation and reunification with families.

The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), which publishes a well-known shortlist for the Nobel Peace Prize each year, highlights his work as a possible focus for an award recognising children’s protection in wartime. His experience predates the full-scale invasion: he founded the charity in 2014 and served as Ukraine’s presidential commissioner for children’s rights from 2014 to 2021.

Save the Children

Save the Children is an international children’s rights and humanitarian organisation that PRIO has separately identified as a potential joint recipient with Kuleba. The case centres on protecting children from violence and ensuring they have access to care and education during conflict. 

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A striking part of its history: founder Eglantyne Jebb was arrested for distributing leaflets protesting the suffering of children in defeated European countries after the First World War. She later drafted a declaration of children’s rights adopted by the League of Nations. 

Committee to Protect Journalists

The Committee to Protect Journalists is a New York-based press freedom organisation that investigates attacks on reporters and provides them with emergency support. PRIO argues that recognising it would highlight journalism’s role in protecting peace and democracy. Its work extends beyond documenting abuses to helping journalists relocate or obtain medical and legal assistance. 

Founded by correspondents in 1981, its first advocacy campaign helped secure the release of three British journalists detained during the Falklands War.

International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal Court (ICC)

The ICJ and ICC are separate international courts based in The Hague, proposed together on PRIO’s list for defending international law and accountability. 

The distinction between them is useful: the ICJ settles legal disputes between states, while the ICC prosecutes individuals for crimes including genocide and war crimes. An award would recognise the argument that lasting peace requires legal restraints on governments and leaders, as well as diplomacy.

International Space Station partnership

The International Space Station partnership brings together the space agencies of the US, Russia, Europe, Japan and Canada. PRIO’s case is that sustained scientific cooperation provides a rare example of geopolitical rivals working towards a peaceful goal. One detail captures that interdependence: the station’s first module, Zarya, was funded by the US but built and launched by Russia in 1998, according to NASA.

Mark Carney

Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, has attracted speculation over his call for middle powers to cooperate in defending sovereignty against pressure from larger states. AP reports that his international profile has fuelled Nobel discussion, but there is no public evidence that he is on the committee’s shortlist. 

Before entering frontline politics, Carney held an unusual pair of jobs: governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.

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Donald Trump

Donald Trump, the US president, has publicly reported nominations from leaders, including those from Pakistan, Israel and Cambodia. Pakistan cited his claimed role in ending its May 2025 fighting with India, although New Delhi says the ceasefire was agreed directly between the two militaries. 

His candidacy remains controversial, and a nomination does not constitute Nobel endorsement. An unusual footnote: Trump already possesses a Nobel medal, given to him by 2025 winner María Corina Machado — but the prize itself remains hers.

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