Can Max Verstappen finally win Singapore Grand Prix? Polymarket has a guess
Max Verstappen enters the 2026 Singapore Grand Prix with renewed hopes of claiming his first victory at Marina Bay, thanks to Red Bull‘s turnaround that helped him secure his first win of the season in Malaysia.
The result followed months of improvements to Red Bull’s RB22, which struggled with balance and performance earlier in the season.
However, Verstappen remains cautious about his prospects in Singapore, a circuit where he has never won despite finishing second three times.
«We’re going to try, that’s for sure. It’s always complicated on a street circuit; many things have to come together,» Verstappen told Formula 1 on October 8.
The Dutchman acknowledged that Singapore has historically been difficult for Red Bull, even during its dominant championship campaigns.
«I hope it’s going to be a little bit better this year but there are no guarantees,» he added.
Meanwhile, traders on prediction platform Polymarket have placed Verstappen ahead of his rivals in the market for Sunday’s Grand Prix winner. As of October 9, contracts on a Verstappen victory were trading at prices implying a 33% chance of success, compared with 22% for Kimi Antonelli and 14% each for Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton.
Red Bull’s engine progress
According to The Guardian’s F1 correspondent Giles Richards, these developments have improved the RB22’s cornering performance, straight-line speed, tyre management and energy deployment.
Team principal Laurent Mekies has also praised the progress of Red Bull Ford Powertrains, which developed its first Formula 1 engine under the 2026 regulations. However, a dispute over engine development rules has raised questions about Red Bull’s hybrid technology.
🗣️ Helmut Marko to OE24: "The chassis was to blame for it not working out earlier (winning in Singapore). Max said he thinks it’s possible to finally win in Singapore. As you know, that’s the only victory he’s missing." MAX THINKS ITS POSSIBLE TO WIN IN SINGAPOREEEEEE !!!!! https://t.co/qMbZ9ZGsAI
— Verstappen News (@verstappenews) October 6, 2026
Speaking to Motorsport.com on October 8, Verstappen admitted that Red Bull still struggles with bumps and kerbs, two characteristics of the Marina Bay street circuit. Although the RB22 has improved in slow-speed corners this season, the Dutchman warned that these limitations could prevent the team from matching its performance in Malaysia.
«So, of course, I have unfinished business here when you have not won the race yet. Actually every year I come back, and I’m trying to win it, but we also need to be realistic. But I hope that we can be, let’s say, a little bit more competitive this year, compared to the last few years,» Verstappen said.
max on winning in singapore: "…we try every single year again and hopefully one year it will happen. but you also shouldn’t be too stressed about it too much bcs it doesn’t bring you anything. so, every year you come back and you try to be at least on the podium or try to win" https://t.co/ttgVEZ6gzU
— yoshii (@mxverschaos) October 9, 2026
His teammate Isack Hadjar was more optimistic. The Frenchman pointed to Red Bull’s performances in Baku and Malaysia, two circuits with contrasting characteristics, as evidence that the upgraded RB22 could also perform well in Singapore.
Hadjar also highlighted Verstappen’s second-place finish in Madrid, where the car handled a demanding chicane better than expected.
Fresh challenges for Mercedes and Singapore sprint
Verstappen will also face competition from championship leader Antonelli, as well as Ferrari and McLaren. Mercedes driver George Russell, who won the 2025 Singapore Grand Prix, faces a grid penalty after exceeding his engine allocation, potentially complicating his chances on Sunday.
Singapore will also host its first Formula 1 sprint weekend, giving teams just one practice session before Friday’s sprint qualifying. The limited preparation time, combined with Marina Bay’s demanding corners and unpredictable conditions, could make setup choices particularly important.
The 21-lap sprint takes place on Saturday, October 10, followed by the 62-lap Grand Prix on Sunday, October 11.
