Uzbekistan’s Central Bank has outlined three possible paths for the nation’s economy through 2027, the regulator of the bank reports.
The main scenario envisions stable global economic growth, lower global inflation, and other favourable factors. Under these conditions, Uzbekistan’s GDP could grow by about 5.5–6% in 2025, 5.5–6.5% in 2026, and 6–6.5% in 2027.
«Relatively tight monetary conditions should help normalise consumer demand and bring inflation down to 6–7% by 2025,» the report notes.
If the economy follows this path, inflation may reach 5% by mid-2026.
In an alternative scenario, the Central Bank expects high inflation, weakened economic activity in major countries, and increased fragmentation in the global economy. This path projects GDP growth at 5–5.5% next year, with 5–6% in 2026 and a recovery to 5.5–6.5% in 2027.
Under this scenario, inflation would likely be 7–8% next year, around 6% in 2026, and 5% by mid-2027.
The risk scenario foresees higher inflation, with prices rising by 8–9% in 2025, 7–8% in 2026, and reaching the target of 5% by late 2027.
The Central Bank will focus its monetary policy on achieving price stability and bringing inflation to 5% in all three scenarios.
