What does mean Trump's Second Mandat for Uzbekistan

Donald Trump‘s victory in the U.S. presidential election has become this autumn’s major political event. Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was among the first to congratulate the new leader of the White House. With the assistance of experts, Kursiv examines what Uzbekistan can anticipate from Trump and how his significant return to the global stage may impact relations between the two countries.

WTO

Trump is known for his extremely negative attitude towards the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which Uzbekistan has long been trying to get into. In 2018, he called the 1994 pact the worst trade agreement in history and threatened to withdraw from the organisation if it did not change what he considered unfair policies.

Trump’s main grievance with the WTO is the facilitation of China. He also resents that some rich countries are taking advantage of developing countries’ status to receive subsidies and impose high barriers on importers.

Although he means mainly the same China by some countries, it is evident that the conservative wing of the Republicans wants to nullify the distinction between developed and developing economies within the WTO.

Such a political vector is disadvantageous for Uzbekistan and other candidates who cannot boast GDP at the level of China or India. It is not for nothing that Azizbek Urunov, the Uzbek president’s special envoy on WTO issues, called the main obstacle to the negotiation process the fact that developed countries impose the exact requirements on developing countries as they do on themselves.

‘”About the WTO, Trump has a clearly articulated position. He has said that the WTO has become a tool that works more to strengthen the economic potential of China, the main geostrategic rival of the U.S. in the 21st century. Therefore, in the past cadence, his policy was to reduce the influence of the WTO. One mechanism that was supposed to replace the WTO was the so-called Trans-Pacific Initiative, which the Trump administration actively promoted during his first presidential term,” said Bakhtiyor Ergashev, director of the Ma’no Centre for Research Initiatives.

In his opinion, this position has stayed the same, and in the next four years, the United States will distance itself from this organisation, in which China is gaining more and more weight.

“This, of course, poses a question to that group of the Uzbek elite actively promoting the country’s entry into the WTO: How do we proceed? If the U.S. administration continues levelling the WTO’s influence, it becomes unclear why Uzbekistan is making huge efforts to join the organisation,” Ergashev said.

According to Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia sector at the IMEMO RAS, the United States has exhausted its resources to promote Uzbekistan to the WTO.

“Technically, negotiations with the U.S. are over. The tools that the U.S. could use to promote Uzbekistan have largely been used. Further, other players do not depend on the United States in this matter: China, Russia and other countries,” the expert notes.

Illegal migration

Between 2021 and 2023, approximately 13,600 Uzbeks attempted to enter the United States illegally through Mexico, where U.S. border officials apprehended them. While this figure is small compared to the overall number of illegal immigrants crossing the border from Mexico and other Latin American countries each year, conservative politicians and the media have utilised it to tap into public fears about uncontrolled migration and Islamist terrorism.

Earlier this year, Montana Senator Steve Daines stated at a press conference that over 50,000 Central Asians illegally crossed the U.S. border in 2023, suggesting they could be “part of sleeper cells for a terrorist attack on the United States.”

“Illegal migration was one of the main issues that Trump effectively leveraged during his election campaign. There is a significant public demand in the United States for order in this area. That demand has resonated within the Republican Party and Trump’s campaigns, both past and present, which focused on illegal migration. American society has given Trump and his administration a mandate to address this issue,” Ergashev remarked.

Political analysts believe that Trump’s potential second presidential term could favour his anti-immigration initiatives. With both houses of Congress controlled by Republicans following the election, his proposed measures — ranging from building a wall to deporting illegal migrants and their families—are unlikely to face resistance from lawmakers.

“I believe that illegal labour migration from Uzbekistan through the southern border of the United States will be strictly curtailed,” Ergashev concluded.

However, there may be significant challenges ahead for those looking to emigrate to the U.S. legally. Experts interviewed by Forbes predict that the new administration may restrict the issuance of H-1B work visas and employment-based green cards. This could result in more rejections, longer processing times, and more stringent requirements for applicants. The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which allows international students to work in the U.S. for 12 months in their field of study, may also be at risk.

The issue of migration will become increasingly prominent in the bilateral relations between the two countries over the next four years. The new White House administration may demand that Uzbekistan enhance its control over migration flows through its territory, linking these demands to U.S. support in other areas.

China

For the past five years, China has been vying with Russia to be recognised as Uzbekistan’s primary trade partner. In 2023, Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with China surged 50%, rising from $9 bn to $13.7 bn. China has also become Uzbekistan’s leading foreign direct investor, particularly in infrastructure and the energy sectors.

This strengthening of China’s position has caused concern among Republicans and Democrats in the United States. The One Belt, One Road initiative, which aims to establish a trade route for China through Central Asia to markets in Europe and the Middle East, is viewed by Washington as a challenge to its traditional areas of influence.

Stanislav Pritchin emphasises that we can expect a tougher stance from the U.S. regarding its confrontation with China. He points out that Russia and China are vital partners for the Central Asian states. While a framework for cooperation with Russia has been established amid sanctions, the same cannot be said for China. The region may face significant challenges as the West focuses on creating barriers to interaction with major partners without offering viable alternatives.

Grigory Mikhailov, an expert on logistics in Central Asia and editor-in-chief of Logistan.info, warns that if tensions escalate, cargo flows in the China-Central Asia-Europe corridor could be disrupted, which would impact the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR).

In contrast, Bernardo Teles Fazendeiro, a specialist in international relations at the University of Coimbra in Portugal, believes that cooperation between China and Central Asian countries plays a minor role in the American foreign policy agenda. He argues that Washington primarily focuses on Chinese interests in the Pacific and issues related to bilateral trade and semiconductors. Therefore, Central Asia will not soon be a focal point for U.S. strategic interests. While these issues may influence the global political economy, they are unlikely to jeopardise Uzbekistan’s strong relationship with China.

The alliance between Beijing and Moscow solidified during the Ukraine conflict, should not be overlooked. Former President Trump has promised to dismantle this alliance, but it is unlikely that he can achieve this solely through coercive measures. His previous term demonstrated that trade wars with China can be too burdensome for American businesses and consumers. This suggests that the newly elected president may adopt a more moderate approach than his campaign rhetoric.

This situation presents an opportunity for Uzbekistan to serve as a strategic platform for compromise while pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy. By strengthening its ties with China while fostering cooperation with the U.S., Tashkent can enhance its influence in the region, gaining both economic and political advantages.

Uzbekistan’s location on the Silk Road enables it to offer logistical and trade solutions beneficial to China under the One Belt, One Road strategy and to the United States, which aims to bolster regional routes and diminish the influence of China and Russia.

Sanctions

Since the outbreak of the full-scale armed conflict in eastern Ukraine, Central Asian countries have faced significant pressure from the United States and the European Union. The West demands compliance with the sanctions regime, threatening so-called secondary sanctions in case of non-compliance.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev has noted that Central Asian countries feel trapped by the sanctions policy, as these measures lead to increased logistics costs and fuel inflation. Since the summer of 2022, several Uzbek companies have been placed on the stop lists of the U.S. and its allies, with about a dozen currently affected. Companies such as Uzstanex and The Elite Investment Group have fallen out of favour with American authorities.

During his campaign, Trump frequently claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. However, experts emphasise that even if his peacekeeping initiatives were to be successful, it would not automatically result in lifting the sanctions regime.

“I do not believe this conflict will end in a day with just one or two phone calls. This conflict will likely continue until the end of 2025, possibly longer. Consequently, the struggle over sanctions will persist, along with the secondary sanctions imposed by the West on individuals and entities in Central Asia involved in the trade of sub-sanctioned goods and in implementing parallel import schemes to Russia,” stated Ergashev.

During Trump’s administration, the federal law titled Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions came into effect, which removed the president’s ability to ease or lift sanctions without Congressional consent. This law effectively solidified the sanctions imposed by his predecessors by giving them the force of law.

“Trump has promised to try ending this war, but he has not yet indicated how he will manage it. Among many possible options, one potential strategy might involve increasing support for Ukraine and maintaining the sanctions regime to exert maximum pressure on Russia to return to the negotiating table,” Fazendeiro agrees with his Uzbek colleague.

Grigory Mikhailov pointed out that Central Asian countries benefit significantly from the sharp increase in Russia’s exports and imports. The limited effectiveness of U.S. efforts to reduce these flows can be attributed to Washington’s insistence that the region’s states refrain from depositing these benefits without offering any alternative.

“If the conflict ends, the flow of goods—and consequently profits—will decrease,” Mikhailov emphasised.

General vector

Experts surveyed by Kursiv agree that the average temperature of relations between the two countries will likely stay the same under the new president. U.S. policy in Central Asia will largely be shaped by long-term foreign policy goals that both Democrats and Republicans share.

“Despite the well-known practice of the first Trump administration to cancel and revise the decisions of previous presidents, we should not expect any drastic changes in U.S.-Uzbekistan relations in the short term,” stated Ruslan Zaripov from the Institute for Central Asian Studies.

However, he noted that the C5+1 cooperation format—comprising five Central Asian countries plus the U.S.—which was established to discuss issues such as energy, border security, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, illegal migration, human trafficking, and drug trafficking, may face challenges.

“Since this format is political in nature, its future development will depend on how involved the Trump administration will be in Central Asia. American businesses that successfully invest in Uzbekistan’s economy are likely to maintain their positions,” the expert explained.

Ergashev concluded, “The Americans will likely strengthen their regional presence, given its unique geostrategic position. This will allow them to influence the governments of Central Asian countries and leverage this potential in their global geostrategic competition with China, Russia, and Iran. They will continue to bolster their information and non-governmental organisation sectors, strengthen ties with local elites, and create obstacles for their geopolitical rivals.”