Migration Drives 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP, Says World Bank

The World Bank has released a comprehensive study examining migration patterns, challenges, and opportunities in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region. The report highlights that the ECA region hosts 100 mn migrants, representing one-third of the global migrant population. Factors such as income disparities, demographic changes, climate change, and conflicts drive these migration trends.

Central Asia’s migration dynamics

As of 2023, over 80% of migrants from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have moved to Russia. Uzbekistan’s migration is more varied: 57% of its migrants reside in Russia, 15% in Kazakhstan, and 10% in Ukraine. Labour migration significantly contributes to the economies of these countries. In 2024, remittances constituted 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP—the highest globally—24% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP, and 14% of Uzbekistan’s GDP.

Economic impact on households

Migrants from Central Asia often double or triple their earnings abroad, leading to notable welfare improvements for their families. For instance, the poverty rate among Kyrgyz households with an international migrant is below 10%. Without remittances, this rate would exceed 50%. In Uzbekistan, the poverty rate would rise from 9.6% to 16.8% without these financial inflows.

Policy recommendations for effective migration management

The report offers several policy recommendations:

• Tailored Migration Policies: Develop evidence-based policies that address the specific needs of various migrant groups, including both high-skilled and low-skilled workers. National and regional coordination is crucial.
• Integration into Competitiveness Strategies: Incorporate labour migration into broader strategies to enhance productivity, build human capital, and stimulate economic growth. This includes investing in active labour market programmes and adopting selective immigration policies.
• Transforming ‘Brain Drain’ into ‘Brain Gain’: Governments should monitor labour market needs, implement educational cost-sharing systems, promote public-private partnerships, and encourage the return of high-skilled migrants through supportive policies.
• Enhancing Migration Frameworks: Improve domestic migrant registration systems, establish bilateral agreements with destination countries, provide accurate information to prospective migrants, and ensure the portability of social benefits.

The World Bank’s study aims to inform policy discussions by providing data-driven insights into migration’s complexities in the ECA region. Effective management of migration can address sociodemographic imbalances and unlock economic potential.