IMF Raises Uzbekistan’s 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 5.9%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in 2025 to 5.9%, according to the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook obtained by Kursiv.

The revised forecast reflects stronger-than-expected performance in 2024, when Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 6.4%, exceeding the IMF’s October 2024 forecast by 0.9 percentage points.

Among the key drivers of growth for Uzbekistan and other Central Asian economies, the IMF highlights robust domestic demand and large-scale infrastructure investment. In Uzbekistan’s case, the main factor behind rising demand was the increase in real household incomes, rather than consumer lending.

Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have benefited from the global surge in gold prices, providing a further boost to their economic performance.

Looking ahead, the IMF expects Uzbekistan’s economic growth to moderate slightly to 5.8% in 2026, a marginal adjustment from the 5.7% forecast issued in October 2024.

Despite the upbeat outlook, one persistent feature of Uzbekistan’s economy is its relatively high inflation, driven largely by rising fuel and electricity prices. In response, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan continues to pursue a cautious monetary policy, opting not to cut interest rates for now.

Kursiv Uzbekistan previously reported on the World Bank’s GDP forecast for Uzbekistan.