International ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has revised Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to positive, while affirming the long- and short-term foreign and local currency ratings at ‘BB-/B’.
The outlook upgrade reflects the country’s robust economic growth, progress on structural reforms, including energy tariff adjustments, and the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation.
«We expect ongoing reforms and favourable gold prices to support exports, budget revenues, and overall macroeconomic stability,» the agency stated.
Key Factors Behind Upgrade
- High investment activity: Investment levels remain strong at around 33% of GDP
- Solid growth forecast: Real GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.6% between 2025 and 2028
- Energy reforms: Tariff increases on gas and electricity introduced in October 2023 aim to reduce the fiscal burden of subsidies
- Fiscal consolidation: The government plans to lower the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, down from 4.9% in 2023
- Export support from gold: High global gold prices are boosting nominal budget revenues. In 2024, gold accounted for 38% of Uzbekistan’s goods exports
What Could Lead to Further Upgrade
S&P indicated that the rating could be raised if Uzbekistan advances its reform programme, strengthens oversight of state-owned enterprises, and reduces fiscal and external deficits without undermining economic growth.
Potential Risks
The agency warned that it may revise the outlook downward if external conditions deteriorate, if the fiscal deficit widens, or if economic growth slows due to inefficient investment projects.
Domestic Reaction
Saida Mirziyoyeva, Assistant to the President of Uzbekistan, commented that the upgraded outlook reflects growing confidence from the international financial community in the country’s reform efforts.
«As head of the working group on enhancing Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit rating, I understand that any achievement must not only be maintained but improved,» she said.
