Airlines Strengthen Profitability: IATA Projects Modest Growth in 2025
Despite ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges, the sector shows resilience and modest growth in key indicators.
Profit under pressure, but still positive
Airlines are expected to earn a net profit of $36 bn in 2025 — higher than in 2024 ($32.4 bn), though slightly below the December forecast of $36.6 bn. In detail:
- net margin will rise from 3.4% to 3.7%,
- return on invested capital is expected at 6.7%,
- operating profit will reach $66 bn,
- total revenues are projected at a record $979 bn.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh emphasised that the main positive factor is a 13% drop in jet fuel prices, along with steady demand from both passengers and cargo shippers, despite trade tensions and weakening consumer confidence.
«Yes, these are still modest numbers compared to other industries, but $7.20 in net profit per passenger is a solid result, given the difficult backdrop,» Walsh noted.
Growth held Back by aircraft deliveries, trade conflicts and regulations
Airlines around the world are struggling with supply chain bottlenecks: more than 17,000 aircraft are on backorder, the average fleet age is rising, and operational efficiency is declining. One major issue involves PW1000G engines, which have left more than 1,100 planes under 10 years old grounded.
Moreover, rising costs of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are drawing criticism. In 2025, SAF is expected to cost 4.2 times more than regular jet fuel, with industry voices accusing suppliers of profiteering from limited availability.
Regional snapshot: Who earns the most
- North America — $12.7 bn profit, the global leader by volume.
- Middle East — highest profit per passenger ($27.20).
- Europe — $11.3 bn, supported by a strong euro and high low-cost carrier demand.
- Asia — growing demand amid relaxed visa requirements, but geopolitical tension persists.
- Latin America — the only region expected to see a drop in profitability.
- Africa — lowest profit ($0.2 bn), with high operating risk.
Passengers: Satisfied, but Worried About Affordability
According to IATA’s April 2025 survey:
- 97% of passengers were satisfied with their last flight,
- 90% believe air connectivity is essential,
- 88% are concerned about future affordability of flights.
The average real cost of a return ticket (in 2024 prices) will fall to $374 in 2025 — 40% lower than in 2014 — continuing the trend of democratising air travel.
The goal: net-zero emissions by 2050
Although SAF currently accounts for just 0.7% of total aviation fuel, IATA stresses the need for exponential growth in production. Industry costs for participating in the CORSIA carbon offsetting program will hit $1 bn in 2025, while Guyana remains the only country to issue carbon credits of acceptable quality under the scheme.
Context for Uzbekistan
The resilience of the global airline sector sends an important signal for Central Asia as well. Considering Tashkent’s ambitions to become a regional transport hub, these figures reinforce the importance of investing in aviation infrastructure, sustainable fuels, and cross-regional collaboration.
