Uzbekistan’s GDP to Grow 6.7% in H1 2025 – CERR Forecast Highlights Strong Economic Performance

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has released its midyear economic forecast for Uzbekistan, projecting Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in 2025 at 6.7% for the first half of the year. This estimate is based on nowcasting methods that utilize high-frequency indicators and international best practices to deliver a real-time picture of the Uzbekistan economy.

Resilient Growth Amid External Pressures

Amid global uncertainties, the Uzbekistan economic outlook for early 2025 remains strong. According to the State Committee on Statistics, GDP growth in Uzbekistan reached 6.8% in the first quarter. The economy is benefiting from a solid performance across major sectors including services, industry, and construction.

Key economic indicators for Q1 2025:

Market services output rose by 12.6%
Construction volume increased by 10.8%
Retail turnover grew by 9.5%
Industrial production rose 6.5%
Household incomes in Uzbekistan increased by 9.8%

These figures confirm that Uzbekistan’s economy continues to grow in a diversified and balanced manner.

Foreign Trade and Investment Drive Growth

Another critical contributor to Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in 2025 is its foreign trade performance. In January–April, total trade turnover reached $24.6 bn, a 16.3% year-on-year increase. Notably, exports from Uzbekistan jumped 35.1% to $11.9 bn, while imports rose by just 2.9%, significantly narrowing the trade deficit to $846 mln — down from $3.6 bn in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, investment in Uzbekistan remained robust. More than 120 trillion UZS was invested in fixed capital in January–March, reflecting strong infrastructure activity and private sector confidence.

High-Frequency Monitoring and Business Activity Index

CERR’s real-time monitoring approach, part of its GDP nowcasting model for Uzbekistan, allows for more responsive economic analysis. The Business Activity Index (BAI) hit 1,099 points in April 2025, up 9.9% from March and 22.3% higher year-on-year.

Google search trends used in the analysis indicate rising public interest in key categories such as:

«Business and industry» (+4.1%)
«Shopping» (+7.6%)
«Finance» (+3.7%)

These signals further support the upward trend in Uzbekistan’s economic activity and consumer engagement.

International Endorsements of Uzbekistan’s Economic Outlook

The positive economic forecast for Uzbekistan is echoed by major international financial institutions:

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects Uzbekistan’s GDP growth at 6.6%, citing industrial and service sector expansion.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast to 5.9%, highlighting rising real incomes and domestic demand.
The World Bank also projects 5.9% GDP growth in Uzbekistan, supported by remittance inflows and stable investment levels.

These forecasts confirm Uzbekistan’s position as one of the fastest-growing economies in Central Asia.

Forward-Looking Economic Strategy

«Our use of weekly monitoring tools and high-frequency data ensures an agile response to shifts in the national and global economy,» said Jamshid Akhmatov, Senior Research Fellow at CERR Uzbekistan. «This helps guide effective policymaking in a dynamic environment.»

With strong domestic demand, expanding trade, and rising investment, Uzbekistan’s economy is on a steady path for the remainder of 2025. The CERR’s forecast of 6.7% GDP growth in H1 2025 reinforces confidence in the country’s continued economic transformation.