Yuliy Yusupov: “There’s no strengthening of the soum—only a weakening of the dollar”
Economist Yuliy Yusupov has challenged claims that the Uzbek soum is strengthening, arguing instead that recent trends in the currency market reflect a weakening of the U.S. dollar, not any real gains by the soum.
«There’s no strengthening of the soum. There’s a decline of the dollar,» Yusupov wrote on social media.
He pointed out that since the beginning of the year, the U.S. dollar has dropped by nearly 10% against the euro and 3.3% against the soum. At the same time, the Uzbek soum has lost value against other major currencies:
- down 7.2% to the euro
- down 4.2% to the British pound
- down 22.4% to the Russian ruble
- down 4.8% to the Japanese yen
Yusupov noted that since Uzbekistan’s main trading partners are not the U.S. but China, Russia, and European countries, the soum has not strengthened in real terms. Instead, he said, it is depreciating in line with inflation.
He recalled that in 2022 and 2024, the soum did appreciate in real terms, as the rate of depreciation lagged behind inflation. According to him, this hurt the competitiveness of local manufacturers:
«When the national currency appreciates in real terms, it becomes harder for local businesses to compete with imports,» he explained.
The economist also pointed to gold as a factor supporting the exchange rate.
«Rising gold prices and active gold sales by Uzbekistan have supported the soum in recent years,» Yusupov noted.
Commenting on the dollar’s decline, he linked it to Donald Trump’s policies:
«The unpredictability of tariff policy and criticism of the Fed chair have undermined investor confidence in the U.S. and the dollar,» he concluded.
For alternative perspectives on exchange rate adjustments, see Kursiv Uzbekistan’s related article.
