Uzbekistan’s Economy to Grow 6.5% in 2025, Inflation to Slow

Exports and investments will be the driver of growth. Photo: Depositphotos

Uzbekistan’s GDP is projected to grow 6.5% by the end of 2025. In 2026–2027, the country’s economy is expected to expand by an average of 6.4% annually, according to analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).

Earlier, the EDB published its first macroeconomic forecast on Uzbekistan. The key drivers of GDP growth, according to the bank, will be the expansion of exports of metals, textiles, and agricultural products, along with large-scale public investment in transport and utility infrastructure.

Additional support for the economy will come from an increase in remittances and credit availability, helping to offset weaker external demand for Uzbek exports.

According to the EDB, inflation in Uzbekistan is expected to slow to 8.1% in 2025, and to 6.1% in 2026–2027. This deceleration will be driven by a high interest rate environment and moderating income growth. However, the weakened soum and rising utility tariffs are expected to remain inflationary factors.

The EDB forecasts the Central Bank’s key interest rate to remain at 14% by the end of 2025. For 2026–2027, the average rate is expected to drop to 11.8%.

The average exchange rate of the Uzbek soum to the U.S. dollar is projected to fall to 13,200 soums per USD in 2025, and to 14,300 in 2026–2027.

Kursiv Uzbekistan also reports on Uzbekistan’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2025.