Russia’s Growing Demographic Crisis Threatens Long-Term Economic Stability
Russia is grappling with a serious demographic challenge that could have far-reaching consequences for its economy. With a rapidly aging population, shrinking workforce, and record-low birth rates, experts warn that the crisis could soon overshadow even the impact of Western sanctions, as reported by Daily Express.
According to Russian Labour Minister Anton Kotyakov, the country needs to bring 10.9 mln people into the workforce by 2030 to replace the 10.1 mln expected to retire by then. Speaking at a high-level cabinet meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin, Kotyakov warned of a looming labour shortfall if productivity does not increase.
«If productivity remains at current levels, we may face a significant additional shortage of personnel,» he said, according to a Kremlin transcript.
The cabinet meeting focused on the deteriorating demographic outlook and proposed a series of measures aimed at reversing the trend. These included financial incentives for families with multiple children, such as direct cash payments and expanded tax benefits.
Russia’s birth rate fell to 1.22 mln in 2024, the lowest since 1999, while the national death rate rose by 3.3%, based on official statistics. Analysts from the Atlantic Council have projected that if current trends continue, Russia’s population could fall by half by the end of the 21st century.
Compounding the crisis is the ongoing situation in Ukraine, which has resulted in both heightened mortality and the emigration of young professionals, further tightening the labour market. These shortages have also driven up wages, contributing to inflationary pressures.
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov signaled growing concern, stating that the country was «on the brink of recession.» He noted that business activity had slowed considerably and current data suggested weakening economic momentum.
«The figures show a cooling economy,» Reshetnikov told business outlet RBC. «If we judge by business sentiment and key indicators, we may already be entering a recession.»
As Russia attempts to balance domestic pressures with geopolitical ambitions, its ability to navigate this demographic time bomb may ultimately determine the country’s economic and political trajectory for decades to come.
Kursive Uzbekistan also reports that Uzbek and Russian military drone operators have conducted joint exercises targeting armored vehicles as part of the «Khamkorlik-2025» drills currently taking place at the Termez training ground.
