CERR: Uzbekistan’s Business Climate Index Rises to 63

The index measures both current business conditions and future expectations. Photo: CERR

Uzbekistan’s business climate has reached its strongest point in two years, according to a nationwide survey conducted by the Centre for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) shared with Kursiv. The Business Climate Index rose to 63 points in June 2025, marking a 10-point increase year-on-year and the highest reading since 2023.

This upturn reflects growing confidence among entrepreneurs, supported by improved demand, employment and expectations for continued economic stability. The index rose by 2 points compared to May, showing consistent upward momentum since the start of the year.

The index, based on surveys of over 1,000 enterprises across key industries, measures both current business conditions and future expectations using methodology adapted from Germany’s IFO Institute.

Services Lead the Way, Industry and Agriculture Show Optimism

The services sector recorded the strongest improvement, with the index climbing 17 points year-on-year to 68. The current conditions index rose by 22 points to 57, while expectations increased to 79. Nearly half of service-sector respondents assessed the current environment as favourable, with 71% forecasting rising demand.

The industrial sector followed with a moderate increase, posting 59 points in June, up by 5 from the same month in 2024. Although current conditions remained stable at 37, expectations for the future jumped to 83 points, up from 73.

In agriculture, the index climbed to 59 points, with farmers reporting improved conditions and stronger hiring. The current situation index increased by 6 points to 41, while 79% of agricultural businesses expect further improvements.

Construction Holds Steady Amid Changing Outlook

The construction sector showed a smaller year-on-year rise, reaching 61 points, with significant gains in current conditions, up 15 points to 49, but a decline in expectations, which dropped 9 points to 73. Despite this, over a third of construction firms reported improved conditions, while 21% expect no major change in the near term.

Across all sectors, 38% of businesses said their situation improved in the last three months, with 24% reporting job growth and 71% expecting continued demand increases.

The Current Conditions Index stood at 47 points, up by 13 from June 2024, while the Expectations Index climbed to 80 points, reflecting widespread optimism.

Kursiv also reports that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan has reported that the country’s money supply reached 312 trln UZS ($24.4 bn) as of January–May 2025.