Error in Uzbekistan’s Data Distorted Global Climate Forecasts, Stanford Researchers Say

Alarming projections that climate change could reduce global GDP by 62% by the year 2100 have turned out to be significantly overstated—due to a critical error in data relating to Uzbekistan, according to a new review by Stanford University researchers.

The original study, published a year ago in Nature, claimed that the global economy was on track to lose 19% of its GDP by 2050 and 62% by 2100 due to climate-related impacts. These forecasts gained widespread media coverage and were cited in policy planning by the U.S. government and the World Bank.

However, further analysis revealed that these severe projections stemmed from inaccurate economic data for Uzbekistan. The dataset used for the model showed Uzbekistan’s GDP plummeting by nearly 90% in 2000, then surging by more than 90% in 2010—figures that sharply contradict World Bank data, which indicate steady, moderate economic growth during those years.

Once the flawed Uzbekistan data was removed, the GDP loss projections dropped significantly: from 62% to 23% by 2100, and from 19% to just 6% by 2050.

The authors of the original study have acknowledged the mistake and published an updated model. The revised projections now show a 17% GDP loss by 2050. However, critics argue that altering methodology after publication undermines scientific integrity.

Nature has launched a formal review of the original article and emphasized that science relies on continuous scrutiny, corrections, and open debate.

Kursiv Uzbekistan also reports that solar panels installed on homes, businesses and infrastructure sites across Uzbekistan generated 875 mln kWh of electricit.