$7bn and 60,000 Jobs on the Line as US Student Visas Stall
An analysis of government data has revealed that new international student enrolment in US universities could fall by as much as 30–40% this autumn, stripping communities of $7 bn in spending and more than 60,000 jobs. The joint study by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International is the first to quantify the likely economic fallout of the downturn, The Pie reports.
NAFSA chief executive Fanta Aw described the findings as a wake-up call for the US State Department to act decisively to ensure students and scholars can reach American campuses in time for the new academic year.
Visa Interview Freeze Fuels Sharp Decline in Enrolments
A key factor behind the decline is the State Department’s decision to suspend visa interviews between May 27 and June 18, while introducing new vetting procedures with just five days’ notice. The pause disrupted operations at embassies worldwide and has become a major bottleneck in the student visa process.
Without a substantial rebound in visa approvals over July and August, NAFSA and JB International warn that up to 150,000 fewer students could arrive this autumn. They also predict that the situation will deteriorate further as the full impact of the freeze becomes clear. At the peak issuance period in June, forecasts suggest an 80–90% collapse in student visas.
«It is not too late,» Aw told a NAFSA webinar on July 29. «If the government prioritises students now, we can still prevent the worst outcomes.»
However, delays persist. Students from India, China, Nigeria and Japan – together accounting for a significant share of US enrolments – continue to face limited appointment availability. Many are now abandoning plans to study in the US. Last year, India and China alone represented 54% of new international students, while Nigeria ranked seventh and Japan thirteenth among source markets.
The downward trend in visa issuance was evident even before the freeze. Between January and April 2025, the number of F-1 visas granted fell by 12%, and May saw a further 22% drop compared with the previous year.
Economic Impact Could Extend for Years
Policy decisions have also contributed to the decline. The president’s June 4 executive order extended travel bans to nationals from 19 countries, blocking them from obtaining new visas. The research estimates this alone could cost $3 bn and 25,000 jobs annually. JB International’s founder Jason Baumgartner warned that another 36 countries are under discussion for possible restrictions.
NAFSA is urging the State Department to fast-track visa appointments for all student and exchange visitors and to exempt F, M and J visa holders from current travel bans.
«This is not a technical glitch,» Aw stressed. «It is a policy failure with human and economic costs that hit key source countries hardest. The message it sends is that international students may not be welcome in the US – and the damage could last for years.»
If enrolments do fall by the projected 30–40%, total international student numbers in the US could drop by 15%. Last year, their financial contribution reached a record $46 bn, supporting nearly 400,000 jobs nationwide. Aw emphasised that the immediate financial loss is «just the tip of the iceberg», noting that international students drive research, innovation and global competitiveness, and enrich US academic life «for generations».
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