Goldman Sachs Predicts Gold Could Soar Towards $5,000
Gold could climb close to $5,000 an ounce if the Federal Reserve’s independence is undermined and investors transfer even a small share of their Treasury holdings into gold, according to Goldman Sachs.
In a research note, analysts including Samantha Dart warned that «a scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices, and a weakening of the dollar’s reserve currency role. In contrast, gold is a store of value that does not rely on institutional trust.»
Projections for Gold
The bank mapped out a range of potential price paths. Its baseline forecast puts gold at $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026, with a higher-risk scenario of $4,500. If just 1% of the privately-held US Treasury market shifted into bullion, Goldman estimates the price could approach $5,000.
Gold has already been one of the strongest-performing major commodities in 2025, up more than a third and reaching a fresh record earlier this week. Central bank buying and expectations that the Fed will soon begin cutting US interest rates have underpinned the rally.
Political Pressure on the Fed
More recently, investors have been unsettled by President Donald Trump’s efforts to increase influence over the Fed, including a push to remove Governor Lisa Cook. Goldman’s analysts wrote,
«We estimate that if 1% of the privately owned US Treasury market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000 an ounce, assuming all else remains constant. As a result, gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation in the commodities space.»
The note, titled Diversify Into Commodities, Especially Gold, avoided direct reference to Trump’s criticism of the central bank or recent internal disputes, yet the concerns have sparked broader warnings. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said a loss of Fed independence would pose a «serious danger» to the global financial system.
Current Market Standing
Spot gold was last trading at around $3,540 an ounce, trimming earlier losses. On Wednesday, Septemeber 3, it reached an all-time high above $3,578.
