At the International Forum «Road to Prosperity» held in Namangan on September 17–18, 2025, experts underlined that Uzbekistan must prepare to review its social policy following the country’s long-awaited national census next year. Correspondent of Kursiv Uzbekistan attended the event and shared opinions of the experts.
The discussions highlighted how demographic shifts, from a growing youth population to a rising number of elderly citizens, will reshape the nation’s development priorities.
Florence Bauer, Regional Director for UNFPA Eastern Europe and Central Asia, stressed that Central Asia is at a unique demographic crossroads.
«One third of the population is below 15 years old, and at the same time life expectancy is steadily increasing. This creates both opportunities and challenges. Investing in human capital, quality education, healthcare, and empowering women and youth is critical to harness this demographic window of opportunity,» she said.
Bauer underlined that such windows «do not last forever» and called for people-centred, gender-sensitive policies backed by robust social protection systems and reliable data.
Abdulla Abduqodirov, First Deputy Director of the Agency for Strategic Reforms under the President of Uzbekistan, pointed out that current statistics mask the true scale of changes in population dynamics.
«The last census was done in 1989. We need to know how many people live permanently in Uzbekistan, how many work abroad, and how the population is distributed between cities and rural areas,» he said.
According to Abduqodirov, migration and rapid urbanisation are already reshaping labour markets, while many rural schools and kindergartens suffer from poor infrastructure, with one-third lacking basic water supply.
He warned that without accurate data, it is impossible to plan for future social needs such as education, pensions, or healthcare.
«When we will have the results of the census, the whole social policy will need to be reconsidered. We must know where the most vulnerable groups live and where government investments are most urgently required,» he said.
Both speakers stressed that the census will be more than a statistical exercise. It will provide the evidence base for decisions on issues ranging from pension reform and ageing to youth employment and gender equality. Uzbekistan’s ability to adapt its policies to these shifts, they noted, will determine whether the country turns its demographic changes into a true driver of prosperity.
