According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the US president Donald Trump has a 4% chance of receiving this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The figure is lower than that of Yulia Navalnaya but still higher than environmental activist Greta Thunberg.
The frontrunner is Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who holds a commanding 68% probability of winning. Her support among Polymarket participants is more than three times higher than that of the second-placed contender — the Sudanese humanitarian coalition Emergency Response Rooms, which stands at 18%. Navalnaya follows in third place with 8%.
Trump’s odds are roughly equal to those of the medical charity Doctors Without Borders, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the UN agency for Palestinian refugees are both given just 1%. Greta Thunberg’s chances currently sit at 1%.
These figures, recorded as of 12:10 (GMT+5) on October 10, 2025, are subject to change as new forecasts emerge.
Meanwhile, public opinion in the United States remains sceptical, polls indicate that 76% of Americans believe Trump does not deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.
