Nobel Committee Probes Possible Leak After Betting Spike on Peace Prize Winner

Norwegian officials are investigating a potential leak from the Nobel Peace Prize Committee after an unusual surge in online betting accurately predicted the 2025 laureate just hours before the official announcement.

Bets on Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado spiked on the Polymarket gambling platform shortly after midnight Thursday, Norwegian time — soaring from 3.75% to 72.8% within two hours. Hours later, Machado was officially awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her pro-democracy activism in Venezuela, becoming the country’s first recipient of the honor.

«It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information,» said Kristian Berg Harpviken, head of the Nobel Institute, in a statement to Bloomberg. He confirmed that a formal investigation is expected.

Norwegian newspapers Aftenposten and Finansavisen reported that at least one bettor won over $65K on the surge, with one account created just before the wager was placed.

The Nobel Committee’s Jorgen Watne Frydnes said the group «tends to be very good at keeping secrets,» but acknowledged that the betting activity raised serious concerns.

The Nobel Peace Prize selection process is traditionally one of the most confidential in the world, with nominees and deliberations sealed for 50 years, making any leak unprecedented in modern history.