The VEB Research Institute has forecast Uzbekistan’s GDP to rise by 6.7% in 2025, exceeding the consensus estimate of 6.1%. Growth is expected to remain robust at around 6.0–6.2% in 2026–2027.
According to analysts, this strong performance will be supported by steady population growth, rising domestic demand, and an expanding private sector. Additional drivers include higher gold and uranium production and exports, stronger inflows of foreign direct investment, and increased cross-border remittances.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Inflation is projected at 8.6–8.7% in 2025, slowing to 6.0–7.0% in 2026–2027. The Central Bank is expected to maintain moderately tight monetary policy to contain inflation and stabilise the national currency. The average exchange rate of the US dollar in 2025 is forecast at around 13,900 soums, with the key policy rate set at 13.5%.
Trade and Public Debt
Exports are forecast to reach $27.9 bn in 2025, while imports are expected at $39.6 bn. Although the trade deficit will persist, it is likely to narrow. The current account balance may turn positive in 2025–2026 due to higher remittances and growth in service exports.
Public debt is projected to rise to 35.6% of GDP (around $47.8 bn) as the government continues external borrowing to fund infrastructure projects and cover the fiscal deficit.
Growth Potential
The Institute believes Uzbekistan’s medium- and long-term economic growth could strengthen through several key measures:
- Easing monetary policy and improving access to finance
- Continuing privatisation and business climate reforms
- Expanding extractive and manufacturing industries, including machinery and textiles
- Accelerating digitalisation and developing the service sector, particularly transport, finance, and tourism
- Deepening cooperation with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and engaging in new transport and logistics corridors
- Increasing investment in healthcare, education, and science, which could become vital drivers of sustainable growth.
Kursiv also reports that IMF forecasted Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in 2025 at 6.8%.
