Uzbekistan’s Central Bank Projects Stable Growth Amid Inflation Easing

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) has released updated forecasts pointing to continued economic expansion facilitated by a tightening of monetary policy and declining inflationary pressure.

In its latest guidance, the CBU anticipates headline inflation to fall to around 7 % by end-2026, driven by reduced external inflation shocks and a firming exchange rate. Trend Real GDP growth is expected to remain strong, reaching approximately 7–7.5 % for 2025.

The bank has also maintained its policy rate at 14 % per annum, citing the dual need to temper aggregate demand and anchor inflation expectations in the face of still-elevated service-sector price pressures.

Analysts note that Uzbekistan’s solid performance stands out in the regional context, even as other emerging economies in Central Asia face slowdown risks. Still, the CBU flagged that external supply shocks and persistent service inflation remain potential headwinds.

For investors and policy-makers, the message is clear: the CBU is signalling confidence in Uzbekistan’s growth trajectory, but remains cautious and committed to maintaining monetary discipline.

If you like, I can provide a deeper breakdown of sectoral growth trends and risk factors.