Bitcoin Could Drop 80% If Historic Market Cycle Repeats, Analysts Warn

Bitcoin is trading around $110K, but on-chain indicators suggest the world’s largest cryptocurrency could face a deep correction if its long-tracked four-year cycle plays out again, according to data monitored by market analysts.

The Profit-and-Loss (PnL) Index, particularly its 365-day moving average, tracked by CryptoQuant, has reached levels similar to those seen before three major Bitcoin bear markets: 2013, 2017 and 2021. In each of those cycles, Bitcoin fell by approximately 75–80% from its peak the following year.

Previous downturns saw BTC retreat from $1,100 to $200, $19,700 to $3,200, and $69,000 to around $15,500. Each decline occurred after a halving-driven price surge, followed by an extended cooling phase.

Current on-chain signals, including lower realised gains, weaker transaction activity and reduced long-term holder inflows — also point to a late-cycle environment, analysts say.

If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin could retrace to the $22K–$30K range before the next halving cycle triggers renewed accumulation and recovery. CryptoQuant’s models anticipate a peak phase followed by up to two years of correction before the next bullish rotation begins.

The key question for investors now is whether Bitcoin will follow its established halving-cycle structure or break from its decade-long pattern as institutional adoption deepens and ETF demand grows.