Uzbekistan Inflation Expectations Drop to 11.7% in October

In October, the average inflation expectation among Uzbek residents fell slightly to 11.7%, down 0.3% points from September, the Central Bank reports. The median expectation remained at 10.3%.

The highest anticipated inflation was recorded in Tashkent at 14.5%, followed by Tashkent region at 12.6% and Kashkadarya at 12.2%. Lowest forecasts were in Fergana at 10.4%, Andijan at 10.5% and Namangan at 10.6%.

Sector and Demographic Expectations

Residents expect the strongest price rises in household services (13.4%), trade (12.6%) and tourism services (12.4%). Pensioners were the most optimistic group with expectations at 10%, followed by healthcare workers at 10.1% and students at 10.9%.

Income also influenced expectations: those earning 20–30 mln soums ($1,670-2,506) per month forecast 19% inflation, while people earning less than 4 mln soums ($334) anticipated 10.6%.

Key factors shaping expectations were utility tariffs (46%) and energy price increases (42%), followed by food prices (27%), wage growth (26%) and transport costs (25%).

Business Forecasts

Businesses also revised down their inflation expectations, with an average of 11.1% and a median of 10%. The highest forecasts were observed in Khorezm at 12.8%, Tashkent at 12.6% and Tashkent region at 12.2%, while the lowest were in Namangan, Jizzakh (10.1%) and Andijan (10.2%).

By sector, businesses expect the highest price growth in culture (13%), catering (12.4%) and construction (11.9%), with the lowest inflation forecasts in agriculture (9.5%), crafts (10.2%) and healthcare (10.3%).

Kursiv also reports that Uzbekistan’s inflation fell to 8% in September 2025.