Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of Uzbekistan’s state-owned oil and gas company JSC Uzbekneftegaz (UNG) at ‘BB’ with a Stable Outlook, keeping the rating in line with the sovereign. The company’s senior unsecured rating was also affirmed at ‘BB’ with a Recovery Rating of ‘RR4’.
Fitch said UNG’s rating is equalised with that of Uzbekistan (BB/Stable) due to the company’s full state ownership, strategic role in supplying domestic energy and strong state support, including guarantees on 37% of its consolidated debt as of end-June 2025. The agency assesses both oversight and precedents of support from the government as «Very Strong», while incentives to support are «Strong».
At the standalone level, UNG’s ‘b’ Standalone Credit Profile reflects its medium scale, low-cost upstream position and sizeable reserves, but is constrained by regulated domestic gas prices, weaker profitability versus regional peers and operating environment limitations in Uzbekistan. Natural gas output has been falling, from 33.9 bcm in 2021 to 27.1 bcm in 2024, with Fitch projecting a further decline to 25.5 bcm in 2025 before stabilisation.
A key uncertainty is the planned privatisation of UNG’s gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant, which contributed about 28% of Fitch-calculated EBITDA and roughly half of gross debt in 2024. Fitch noted that removing GTL’s cash flows and debt from consolidation could be neutral for the standalone profile if weaker business fundamentals are offset by stronger leverage; however, deconsolidation of cash flows without a reduction in debt could weigh on both the SCP and the IDR.
Fitch flagged tight liquidity as a continuing risk. UNG’s cash stood at UZS3.7 trillion at end-June 2025 against UZS9.2 trillion in short-term debt, leaving the company reliant on refinancing despite an April 2025 USD850 million bond issue and new loan agreements totalling UZS9.7 trillion in the first half of 2025. Negative rating pressure could arise from a sovereign downgrade, sustained leverage above 4.5x, weaker state backing, such as government-guaranteed debt falling below 25%, or an unmitigated weakening of the business profile after the GTL privatisation.
Kursiv Uzbekistan also reports that Pakistan’s state-owned National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) will launch a branch in Uzbekistan as part of a wider effort to strengthen economic cooperation between the two nations.
