Uzbekistan’s Central Bank expects inflation to reach 8% this year while the economy is set to expand by between 7 and 7.5%, according to its monetary policy report covering the period to 2028.
Under the baseline scenario, growth next year should ease to around 6.5% before rising to about 7% in 2027 and 2028. The regulator notes that global growth will stay subdued in the medium term yet does not expect sharp swings in the currency market, while gold prices are projected to remain high.
For Uzbekistan, the Central Bank anticipates more moderate credit expansion, rising wages and a steady inflow of investment. The fiscal deficit is forecast at 3% of GDP.
Risks that could push inflation higher include sharp devaluations in partner countries, a drop in gold prices and higher costs for imported food. The bank said that if such shocks occur, monetary policy will remain focused on meeting the medium term goal of bringing inflation down to 5%.
Factors that could ease domestic price pressure include stronger precious metal prices, faster privatisation and an improved investment climate.
Kursiv also reports that Uzbekistan revised its GDP after the National Statistics Committee broadened its data coverage. The updated figures show GDP for 2024 rising from $115 bn to $121.4 bn, helped by the inclusion of an extra $6.81 bn of added value.
