Fitch Forecasts Rise in Problem Loans at Uzbek Banks

Fitch Ratings expects problem loans in Uzbekistan’s banking sector to peak next year, reaching 9–10% of total lending.

«This will largely reflect the continued recognition of legacy risks at state-owned banks, although we also expect higher impairment in retail portfolios due to the ‘seasoning’ of loans,» Fitch analysts said in their forecast.

According to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, problem loans reached 22.4 trillion soums over the first ten months of the year, with a monthly increase of 5.1%. State-owned banks account for the largest share — 15.8 trillion soums — while private banks hold 6.6 trillion soums.

Despite the anticipated rise in non-performing loans, Fitch expects Uzbekistan’s banking sector to remain stable next year. The agency also forecasts that Tashkent will adopt a more targeted programme for bank privatisation.

Earlier, Kursiv Uzbekistan reports that recent report by Fitch Ratings covering the banking sectors across the «CIS+» group of countries, among them Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine, paints a cautiously optimistic picture for 2026.