Uzbekistan’s Gas Output Set to Fall Until 2029 Despite Expansion Plans

Uzbekistan is expected to see a steady decline in natural gas production over the next few years, according to the draft Uzbekistan-2030 Strategy. The government now plans to reach 38.7 bn cubic metres by 2030 — a sharp cut from the 62 bn cubic metres goal in the 2023 strategy.

Projections show production slipping in the short term. In 2026, output is likely to hit 37.9 bn cubic metres, followed by 35.6 bn in 2027 and 33.4 bn in 2028. Growth is only expected to return in 2029, rising 23.3% to 41.2 bn cubic metres, though 2026 alone will see a drop of over 6%.

Statistics from the State Committee on Statistics indicate that gas production fell 5.1% in the first 11 months of 2025 to 38.9 bn cubic metres, down from nearly 44.6 bn cubic metres in 2024.

Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov recently said that new gas fields in Karakalpakstan could help stabilise production in 2026. Despite this, the updated strategy takes a more cautious view, suggesting that Uzbekistan’s gas sector will need several years to recover.