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Amid a slowdown in the global economy and weakening momentum in CIS countries, Uzbekistan is demonstrating a combination of sustainable growth and macroeconomic predictability that is rare for the region.
According to World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, the country’s economy continues to grow at a pace exceeding both global averages and the performance of most transition economies.
On the 2026–2027 horizon, the UN views Uzbekistan as one of the key stabilisers of economic activity in Central Asia.
Shift From External Factors to Domestic Sources of Growth
The UN report records an important structural shift. The country’s economic growth is becoming less dependent on transit and re-export effects, which previously supported the region amid sanctions pressure on Russia.
As these factors weaken across Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan has managed to maintain strong momentum through domestic demand, large-scale infrastructure investment, expansion of the tourism sector and favorable conditions in the gold market.
This combination is forming a more endogenous growth model that is less vulnerable to external fluctuations. In recent years, Uzbekistan’s economic growth has increasingly relied on domestic demand.
Inflation as a Reflection of the Growth Phase
Inflation dynamics deserve special attention. In previous years, Uzbekistan was among countries with double-digit inflation. However, according to UN assessments, the peak of inflationary pressure has already passed.
Further deceleration of price growth is expected in 2026–2027. At the same time, inflation remains higher than in developed economies. This is influenced by factors typical of an active growth phase: rising incomes, expanding consumption and investment pressure accompanying structural transformation.
Reduced Dependence on Russia and Rising Economic Autonomy
Another important factor supporting Uzbekistan’s resilience is the transformation of the regional context. The UN directly points to a declining role of Russia as an economic anchor for CIS countries.
While some regional economies remain sensitive to a slowdown in Russia, Uzbekistan relies more heavily on its own economic policy and internal drivers. This reduces exposure to external shocks and increases the autonomy of its macroeconomic trajectory.
Structural Constraints and Long-Term Risks
High growth does not eliminate structural constraints. Uzbekistan remains a landlocked country and faces logistical costs, dependence on commodity markets and climate-related risks.
These factors create long-term vulnerabilities that could limit development potential in an unfavorable external environment.
That is why long-term growth sustainability will depend on further economic diversification and the effectiveness of infrastructure investment.
Uzbekistan in Regional Comparison
At the regional level, Uzbekistan looks «above average.» According to UN assessments, the country demonstrates more stable macroeconomic dynamics than many CIS and Central Asian economies.
The absence of sharp downturns and the preservation of growth rates over the medium term make Uzbekistan one of the most predictable economies in the region.
All of this allows for a reassessment of the country’s role in Central Asia. In the UN’s view, Uzbekistan is no longer a catch-up economy and is increasingly acting as a sustainable driver of regional growth.
