Takaichi Coalition Set for Historic Supermajority in Japan Election

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is on course for a landslide victory after exit polls indicated her ruling coalition could secure a rare supermajority in the lower house of parliament.

According to public broadcaster NHK, Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party is projected to win between 274 and 328 seats on its own, with the coalition total reaching as many as 366 seats in the 465-member chamber. Such a result would allow the coalition to override the upper house, strengthening Takaichi’s grip on power and marking the LDP’s strongest showing since electoral reforms in 1996.

The snap February election, only the third held in winter in Japan’s postwar history, was called shortly after Takaichi formed a new alliance with the Japan Innovation Party. Despite heavy snowfall disrupting transport in parts of the country, voter turnout remained solid, validating what analysts described as a high-risk but well-timed political gamble.

While the outcome boosts Takaichi politically, her economic agenda has unsettled markets. A campaign pledge to suspend the 8% sales tax on food, aimed at easing pressure from rising prices, is estimated to cost around 5 trillion yen annually. Investors have raised concerns over fiscal sustainability in the world’s most indebted major economy, contributing to yen weakness and higher bond yields.

A decisive mandate could also accelerate a rightward shift in policy. Takaichi has signalled plans to expand defence spending, ease restrictions on weapons exports and push through security reforms by the end of the year, moves that have drawn criticism from China and concern from analysts over Japan’s increasingly hawkish political direction.

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