Goldman Sachs Raises 2026 Brent and WTI Forecasts

Goldman Sachs raised its price projections for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude in the fourth quarter of 2026, citing lower inventories in OECD countries, even as it continues to forecast a global oil surplus and assumes no major supply disruption linked to Iran.

The bank increased its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast by $6, putting Brent at $60 a barrel and WTI at $56. For the full year, it now expects Brent to average $64, up from $56, and WTI to average $60, compared with a previous estimate of $52.

Oil prices slipped about 1% on Monday as the United States and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear negotiations, easing concerns over escalating tensions. Brent was trading near $71 a barrel, while WTI hovered around $65.75.

In a note issued on Sunday, Goldman said its $60 Brent projection reflects a gradual unwinding of a $6 geopolitical risk premium if tensions ease, along with a $5 reduction in fair value as OECD stockpiles rise.

Surplus Still Expected

The bank maintained its forecast of a 2.3 mln barrel-per-day surplus in 2026, assuming no significant supply shocks and no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

Goldman adjusted its outlook slightly, trimming both supply and demand projections by 0.2 million barrels per day due to softer growth in Asia. It lowered supply estimates for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq following weaker production, while raising expectations for the Americas and key OPEC producers with spare capacity.

OPEC+ is expected to begin gradually increasing output in the second quarter of 2026, as OECD inventories have not shown significant accumulation.

Risks to the Outlook

The bank warned of downside risks to its fourth-quarter 2026 forecasts, estimating that Brent could fall $5 and WTI $8 if sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates stock builds and unlocks additional supply.

Looking further ahead, Goldman expects Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61 in 2027, rising to $70 and $66 respectively by the end of that year, supported by steady demand and slower supply growth.