Experts Question Iran’s Ability to Sustain Retaliation Against U.S. and Israel

Iran retains a significant missile arsenal but faces growing doubts over its ability to sustain prolonged retaliatory strikes against the United States and Israel, according to regional security experts.

The debate comes after reported joint U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses against Israel and US bases in the Gulf.

Analysts say Iran still holds a sizeable ballistic missile inventory despite heavy losses during the 2025 conflict with Israel. Estimates suggest Tehran may possess roughly 1,500 to 2,000 missiles, supported by domestic production and underground storage networks.

However, Iran’s capabilities are seen as degraded compared with previous years. Experts note that the earlier war destroyed a significant portion of missile launchers and weakened Tehran’s broader military infrastructure, limiting the scale and sustainability of future strikes.

Iran may still be able to launch short-term retaliation, including missile barrages or asymmetric measures such as cyberattacks and disruption of maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz. But analysts warn that maintaining a prolonged high-intensity campaign would be difficult.

Tehran’s regional proxy network has also been weakened. Groups such as Hezbollah have suffered losses, while other allied forces face operational constraints, reducing Iran’s ability to project power indirectly.

Beyond military factors, economic pressure and domestic unrest could further limit Iran’s endurance in a long confrontation. Analysts point to inflation, internal political divisions and weakened social cohesion as key constraints on sustained warfare.

While Iran retains the capacity for immediate retaliation, experts say its ability to maintain a prolonged military confrontation remains uncertain as tensions in the region continue to escalate.

From economics and politics to business, technology and culture, Kursiv Uzbekistan brings you key news and in-depth analysis from Uzbekistan and around the world. To stay up to date and get the latest stories in real time, follow our Telegram channel.