The International Air Transport Association (IATA) anticipates that global air passenger demand will more than double by 2050. According to the organisation’s newly released Long-Term Demand Projections, a midrange scenario forecasts passenger demand reaching 20.8 trln revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) by mid-century.
This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% from the 9 trln RPKs recorded in 2024. Alternative models suggest demand could reach up to 21.9 trln RPKs under a high-growth scenario or 19.5 trln RPKs in a lower-growth forecast.
These varying projections rely on several factors, including long-term economic expansion, population shifts, aviation fuel costs, supply-side capacity and the shift towards clean energy. IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted that this positive outlook will boost global economic and social development by creating new opportunities and jobs.
Regional Growth and Emerging Markets
Expansion will occur at different rates globally due to variations in economic development, demographic trends, connectivity potential and market maturity. The Asia-Pacific and African regions will experience the most rapid growth between 2024 and 2050, with expected CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively. Conversely, North America and Europe will see slower growth rates of 2.8% and 2.5%.
The fastest-expanding specific markets include intra-Africa, Africa-Asia-Pacific, Asia-Pacific-Middle East, intra-Asia-Pacific and Africa-North America. Meanwhile, several markets centred around Europe will be among the slowest to grow.
Long-Term Industry Trends
The report highlights two significant structural trends within the industry. First, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a permanent shift in aviation demand. Even under the most optimistic growth models, the unprecedented drop in RPKs created a lasting gap that will not return to pre-pandemic, GDP-aligned trends by 2050.
Second, the overall rate of growth is gradually slowing down. After averaging 6.1% between 1972 and 1998 and 4.5% from 1998 to 2024, the projected CAGR will slow to 3.1% leading up to 2050. This deceleration points to market maturity rather than declining interest, as the absolute number of passengers will continue to rise significantly.
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