ADB Forecasts Strong Growth for Uzbekistan Despite Looming Global Uncertainty
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) anticipates robust economic performance for Uzbekistan in the coming years, forecasting steady growth and a significant drop in inflation despite growing geopolitical tensions across the globe.
According to the latest Asian Development Outlook for April 2026, Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product is projected to grow by 6.7% in 2026 and accelerate slightly to 6.8% in 2027.
This follows an estimated growth of 7.7% in 2025. Meanwhile, inflation in the country is expected to continue its downward trajectory. Following an estimated 7.3% in 2025, inflation is forecast to fall to 6.5% in 2026 and further decrease to 5.0% by 2027.
Caucasus and Central and West Asia
Looking at the broader Caucasus and Central and West Asia region, growth is expected to moderate to 4.2% in 2026 before rising to 4.4% in 2027. The region is also set to experience a substantial cooling of inflation. Regional inflation, which stood at an estimated 25.6% in 2025, is projected to drop to 20.6% in 2026 and 16.3% in 2027.
Asia and the Pacific
Across the wider developing Asia and the Pacific region, the economic outlook remains relatively strong although growth is projected to moderate to 5.1% in both 2026 and 2027. Inflation across the region is forecast to pick up to 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. However, the ADB warns that these forecasts are subject to extreme uncertainty.
The report notes that the Middle East crisis places geopolitical risk at the centre of the region’s economic outlook. A protracted conflict could lead to severe energy market and supply chain disruptions.
In a worst-case scenario of a year-long disruption, regional growth could be 1.3 percentage points lower over 2026 and 2027, with inflation climbing 3.2 percentage points higher. Additional downside risks for the region include renewed US tariff shocks and a sharp tightening of global financial conditions.
