Uzbekistan’s public debt rises to 27% of projected GDP

New government figures indicated that the country’s public debt increased by $1.33 billion in the second quarter to $48.32 billion at the end of June. That amounted to 27% of forecast annual GDP, but more than $41bn was still in foreign currencies, and liabilities falling due for repayment surged.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance recorded a 2.8% quarterly increase from $46.99bn at the end of March. The debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 26.3% to 27%, although the calculation uses a preliminary forecast for the size of Uzbekistan’s economy in 2026.

The country has added $1.46bn to its debt stock since the end of 2025, when borrowing stood at $46.85bn, according to the ministry’s previous annual figures.

Read more: Uzbekistan’s household debt load surges past «alarming» levels — Central Bank

Foreign-currency exposure eases but remains dominant

External debt increased by $935m during the quarter to $40.71bn, accounting for 84% of the total. Domestic debt grew by $395m to $7.6bn.

The full net increase was due to obligations in soum. Their dollar value rose by $1.37bn to $7.08bn, while foreign-currency debt edged down by about $40m to $41.24bn.

As a result, the foreign-currency share of public debt fell from almost 88% to about 85%. That reduces some exchange-rate exposure, but the government still needs more soum to service most of its debt if the national currency weakens.

Read more: Uzbekistan soum bonds to enter J.P. Morgan emerging markets index

Interest-rate risks also remain. About $27.56bn of the debt carried fixed rates, while $18.77bn – almost two-fifths of the total – had variable rates. A further $1.98bn was interest-free. Variable-rate borrowing can become pricier when the benchmarks used to calculate interest payments rise.

Nearly $3.6bn enters the near-term repayment window

Debt classified as short-term or due within one year rose from $2.64bn to $3.59bn during the quarter, an increase of almost $945m or 36%.

The largest change came from external loans originally issued for longer periods but now due within a year. Their value more than doubled from $552m to $1.42bn. Domestic short-term debt also increased from $801m to $1.17bn.

This does not by itself signal repayment trouble. Maturities naturally move closer as time passes and governments can plan repayments or refinancing in advance. However, the jump means a larger portion of Uzbekistan’s borrowing now requires near-term budget funding or replacement.