Polymarket favours Uzbekistan for Chess Olympiad gold and Sindarov for Gukesh’s title

Uzbekistan‘s Chess Olympiad success is spilling over into prediction markets. Prediction service Polymarket suggests that the Uzbek hosts have a 56% chance of winning the Open tournament, far ahead of China, India, and the United States.

The market snapshot that Kursiv Uzbekistan saw on Tuesday afternoon puts China at 15%, India at 10%, the US at 8% and Germany at 4%. Uzbekistan’s price had jumped by about 31 percentage points as the hosts moved from one of several pre-tournament contenders to the outright leaders.

Polymarket prices move as users buy and sell contracts, meaning a 56-cent «Yes» price corresponds roughly to the market collectively, assigning a 56% probability at that moment. The figure can change quickly as games are played.

The repricing follows Uzbekistan’s biggest result of the tournament. The hosts beat defending champions India 2.5–1.5 in round six after Nodirbek Yakubboev defeated Nihal Sarin on board three. FIDE confirmed Uzbekistan entered Tuesday’s rest day as the sole Open leader, with China and Armenia among the closest pursuers.

This isn’t the only prediction: Wesley So names Uzbekistan favourite for Chess Olympiad gold

Polymarket is even more bullish on Sindarov

The stronger wager concerns Javokhir Sindarov’s November world-title match against the reigning chess champion, Gukesh Dommaraju.

Polymarket currently assigns Sindarov a 72% implied probability of becoming world champion, against roughly 30% for Gukesh. The live championship market has attracted tens of thousands of dollars in trading, with Sindarov holding a clear lead in the market for months.

That gap reflects their sharply contrasting 2026 trajectories. Sindarov won the Candidates Tournament to secure the challenge and has continued producing elite-level results, including finishing ahead of Magnus Carlsen in the Global Chess League. Gukesh remains the reigning world champion but has endured a less consistent year ahead of their Geneva match.

We’re keeping you posted: From Sindarov to Madaminov: Uzbekistan’s five Chess Olympiad hopefuls

Both bets remain far from settled. The Olympiad still has five rounds remaining, while Sindarov and Gukesh do not begin their World Championship match in Geneva until November.