Another diesel crisis looms, and Russia deal is little relief
The global diesel shortage could face another squeeze in 2027 as refineries that postponed maintenance to keep fuel flowing finally stop for repairs. OilPrice warned that the shutdowns could prolong pressure on supplies already disrupted by war.
Refiners have delayed scheduled work while compensating for lost production in Russia and the Middle East, OilPrice reported. That has helped sustain supplies, but maintenance cannot be postponed indefinitely without increasing the risk of breakdowns.
The problem extends beyond securing enough crude oil. Refineries must turn it into diesel, then deliver that fuel to buyers. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report from October shows Middle Eastern refined-product shipments recovering much more slowly than crude exports.
The price of oil is only part of what determines the cost to supply the world with fuel. With tanker rates at historic highs amid disruptions in the Middle East, rising shipping costs are adding further pressure to global oil markets. Read more 👉 https://t.co/bHl85JhsUL https://t.co/uBk2hcalf0
— International Energy Agency (@IEA) October 24, 2026
Global diesel exports were 700,000 barrels a day, which is lower in September than a year earlier, the IEA estimated. Higher shipments from other suppliers only partly replaced losses from Russia and the Middle East.
Morgan Stanley expects unusually heavy maintenance in the second quarter of 2027, according to a bank research note cited by OilPrice’s earlier reporting. It forecasts tight global fuel markets through at least the middle of next year.
Read more: What changes in Russian diesel exports could mean for Central Asia
Why Russian supplies may offer limited relief
President Donald Trump’s agreement to allow Russian diesel into the US does not necessarily increase the amount available worldwide.
Unless Russia restores refinery production, US-bound shipments may simply divert fuel from other buyers, energy analyst Robin Mills argued in The National.
Mills put the first cargo at about 300,000 barrels, expected in New York on 7 November, which is less than a tenth of one day’s US consumption.
Read more: Uzbekistan increases diesel production despite falling oil extraction
The IEA expects constrained supplies to persist into 2027, with depleted diesel and gasoil inventories unlikely to be substantially replenished before the second half. Expensive fuel is already raising the cost of goods and putting pressure on household incomes.
