Uzbekistan’s Next Investment Story: Where Capital Is Likely to Flow in 2026
Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to grow by 6.6% in 2026, according to the parameters set out in the state budget. Industry, construction, and services will remain the main growth drivers, while the agricultural sector is expected to continue expanding at a more moderate pace. Together with industry experts, Kursiv Research examined which sectors will require investment for further expansion, which projects may enter the capital market, and where investors have the greatest chances of seeing share prices rise.
Economic Outlook
Uzbekistan’s investment landscape in 2026 is shaped not only by domestic reforms but also by a significant shift in how the country is perceived internationally. According to Boris Bondar, an analyst at Freedom Broker, investment attractiveness today is determined by the intersection of macroeconomic stability and the quality of institutional frameworks.
«When investors first enter the Uzbek market, their assessment is based on the country’s risk profile. In practical terms, this risk is reflected as a premium added to the required rate of return. The sovereign rating upgrades in 2025 reflected stronger macroeconomic stability. This helps reduce borrowing costs and lower risk premiums, creating favorable conditions for investors,» the expert explains.
According to Bondar, Uzbekistan enters 2026 with stable GDP growth of 6–6.5%. This growth is supported not only by domestic demand but also by diversification, as manufacturing and non-commodity exports are playing an increasingly important role. However, the analyst warns against overlooking risks related to gold prices. Record revenues from gold exports are supporting the budget but also creating dependence on global market conditions. If the price cycle reverses, the government may face the need for tighter fiscal adjustments.
A broader perspective on the country’s transformation comes from Murodjon Farmanov, Chief Executive Officer of the Uzbekistan Mortgage Refinancing Company (UzMRC). He believes 2025 marked a turning point thanks to S&P Global Ratings upgrading Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit rating to BB.
«For the corporate debt market, this event is enormously significant,» says Farmanov. «The sovereign rating establishes both the ceiling and the benchmark risk-free rate. A higher rating means issuers such as UzMRC can raise capital at lower costs. We are already seeing the uncertainty premium shrink. Investors see foreign exchange reserves exceeding $60 billion and understand that external debt remains under control. This creates enthusiasm for investments denominated in the national currency.»
Farmanov also highlights a critical structural shift: the transition from state-directed lending to market-based funding. Whereas mortgage lending and industrial financing previously depended on government injections, the system is now learning to operate using long-term capital raised from the market.
At Agat Credit, a company actively involved in the bond market, the outlook is equally optimistic. Company representatives describe the investment environment as «strong and diversified.» They emphasise that the continued liberalisation of the financial sector and the development of stock exchange infrastructure have laid the foundation for attracting both institutional and retail investors.
Which Instruments Deserve Attention?
In 2026, investor preferences are undergoing a transformation. Fixed-income instruments are moving to the forefront. Boris Bondar believes that local-currency bonds, along with a new segment, foreign-currency bonds issued on the domestic market, will occupy a central place. The latter is still under development but is expected to launch soon.
«Bonds denominated in Uzbek soums allow investors to lock in attractive real yields amid slowing inflation, which is expected to decline to 6–6.5% by year-end,» Bondar notes. «Additional opportunities for the fixed-income market stem from Presidential Decree No. 254 of December 18, 2025, which provides for foreign-currency bond issuance under a special legal framework. Although the market for such instruments has not yet launched, its anticipated introduction will allow investors to combine yield with currency diversification without leaving the domestic infrastructure.»
According to the expert, commercial bank bond offerings will be particularly attractive in 2026. The first major example has already emerged this year: Asaka Bank plans to issue corporate bonds worth 1 trillion soums following approval by its supervisory board. Bondar notes that bonds provide banks with an alternative to deposits, enabling them to build a more stable and predictable funding base for long-term projects.
The experience of microfinance company Agat Credit confirms this trend. The issuer recently launched its fourth bond tranche with several practical goals in mind: diversification to reduce reliance on bank loans, optimisation through fixed-rate funding that improves planning predictability, and growth, as the proceeds are being used to expand the company’s microfinance business.
«Our bonds are in strong demand,» Agat Credit representatives say. «During the first nine months of 2025, around 3,900 transactions were completed, one of the highest figures on the market. Coupon rates of 27–29% annually significantly exceed deposit yields. At the same time, the low nominal value makes them accessible to retail investors.»
Where Should Investors Look?
While the debt market has already achieved significant momentum, the equity market may finally come into its own in 2026. The key expectation remains the government’s privatization program. According to Freedom Finance representatives, years of delays in privatization plans have hindered institutional capital inflows, but the situation is beginning to change.
«The key event of 2026 could be the IPO of the National Investment Fund of Uzbekistan (UzNIF). This is not merely a standalone transaction but an infrastructure milestone. UzNIF has consolidated state stakes in more than ten of the country’s largest companies. Its stock market debut will become an ‘entry point’ into Uzbekistan’s economy for global funds seeking a diversified investment vehicle,» the Freedom Broker analyst emphasizes.
The listing of UzNIF could significantly increase the capitalization of the local market and establish new corporate governance standards. It would also pave the way for future IPOs of individual companies within the fund’s portfolio. Investors should pay close attention to the banking and energy sectors, where some of the most attractive assets are expected to emerge.
Amid expectations surrounding the UzNIF IPO, some of the fund’s portfolio companies have already posted strong share-price performance. For example, by mid-January 2026, shares of the Uzbek Republican Commodity Exchange were trading at twice their level from early 2025. Positive momentum has also been observed in the shares of Uzbektelecom and SQB.
What Will Help the Market Grow Further?
For positive expectations to strengthen, the market is awaiting a deeper transformation. Experts identify several key areas for development.
Murodjon Farmanov of UzMRC highlights four pillars of future growth:
Integration with Global Markets
A strategic objective should be the establishment of a direct link between Uzbekistan’s Central Depository and international settlement systems such as Euroclear and Clearstream. The regulatory sandbox established by the National Agency for Perspective Projects has already attracted participants such as Auerbach Grayson and OTP Bank. This allows foreign investors to purchase Uzbek securities, but conservative institutional funds require a permanent, fully operational framework rather than a pilot structure.
Development of the Market-Maker Institution
The secondary bond market is still dominated by a buy-and-hold strategy, resulting in limited liquidity. Professional market participants need stronger incentives to maintain two-way quotes and support active trading.
Pension Reform
According to Farmanov, the market currently lacks sufficient long-term capital. Allowing pension funds to invest even a small portion of their assets in highly rated bonds could generate substantial domestic demand.
Securitization
The introduction of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) would enable banks to free up balance-sheet capacity while giving investors direct exposure to real estate risk without relying on the creditworthiness of individual banks.
At Agat Credit, the most promising capital market instruments are seen as high-quality corporate and government bonds backed by transparent financial reporting and a stable payment history. The company also highlights foreign-currency instruments, which broaden the investor base and enhance the market’s international appeal, as well as ESG-focused instruments that align with modern investor priorities.
Boris Bondar summarizes the challenge succinctly:
«For the market to grow, it needs greater depth and liquidity. Higher free-float levels and more predictable offerings are what investors are waiting for. Transparency under IFRS reporting standards and strong protection of minority shareholder rights remain the foundation of long-term confidence.»
The implementation of these systemic reforms could combine the success of the bond market with the untapped potential of the equity market. As a result, 2026 promises to become a year of maturity for Uzbekistan’s financial market, offering investors a wide range of opportunities—from reliable government bonds and high-yield corporate debt to long-awaited IPOs capable of reshaping the scale of the national economy.
