Harvard University researchers have developed a model that predicted 75% of suicide attempts and 87% of suicide-related crises up to a week before they occurred, a finding published ahead of World Suicide Prevention Day on 10 September.
The multiyear study, led by psychologist Matthew Nock, followed more than 600 high-risk adults and adolescents using repeated surveys delivered through an app. The research examined changes in participants’ thoughts, emotions and other indicators over time rather than relying solely on occasional clinical assessments.
The findings could offer a new approach to suicide prevention by identifying periods when a person’s risk is increasing and creating opportunities for earlier support.
«We’re not good at predicting suicide attempts and suicide death. We need to get better,» Nock said.
The study is particularly significant because many existing prediction models estimate whether an individual is at risk over much longer periods, such as six months, a year or even a decade. Harvard researchers instead focused on changes occurring close to the time of a crisis.
Real-time monitoring could strengthen prevention
Participants included adults who had received psychiatric treatment in emergency departments and young people aged 12 to 19 who had received inpatient treatment after experiencing suicidal thoughts or behaviour.
The researchers also examined how participants interacted with the surveys, including the time taken to begin and complete them. The study incorporated an alert system designed to allow intervention when responses indicated a high level of risk.
Among the emotional states tracked by researchers, agitation emerged as a stronger predictor than depression. The researchers said this finding adds to evidence that risk can fluctuate substantially rather than remaining constant.
«For the vast majority of people, suicidal thoughts and suicide risk states are transient,» Nock said, emphasising the importance of recognising changes as they occur.
The researchers are now examining how similar real-time approaches could be developed into scalable prevention tools.
Findings coincide with World Suicide Prevention Day
The study comes as World Suicide Prevention Day is observed on 10 September. Organised by the International Association for Suicide Prevention with the World Health Organization as a co-sponsor, the annual observance aims to raise awareness that suicide can be prevented.
Harvard researchers said the findings should not be interpreted as meaning that suicide can be predicted with certainty. I
«What excites me about this line of work is with advances in technology, we now have the ability to bring care to the person’s natural environment,» Nock said.
He also cautioned that such systems would need to be developed alongside clinicians and the people they are intended to help, particularly because continuous mental-health monitoring raises significant privacy considerations.
