Just two countries claim most of Central Asia’s trade and growth 

Trade within Central Asia rose 25.4% to $8.1 billion in the first seven months of 2026, but the regional boom is becoming increasingly concentrated around Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

The region’s two flagship economies accounted for 80.6% of all intra-regional exports and roughly 90% of the increase, according to analysis by the Uzbek think tank Centre for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), seen by Kursiv Uzbekistan.

Kazakhstan remained by far the largest regional seller, with exports to its neighbours rising by 26.8% to $4.5 billion. Uzbekistan showed lower readings in absolute terms but grew faster: its regional exports jumped 34.5% to $2 billion.

For the region to move beyond that structure, CERR argues that governments will need to reduce non-tariff barriers, harmonise technical standards and build cross-border production chains rather than relying mainly on bilateral trade.

Read more: Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan target $2 bn in trade as presidents hold talks

Uzbekistan grows beyond Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan’s total trade with Central Asia increased by 28% to $5.4 billion, but the fastest growth came from its smaller neighbours. Trade with Kyrgyzstan surged 54%, while trade with Tajikistan rose 45%. Kazakhstan, still Uzbekistan’s dominant regional partner, grew by a more moderate 24%.

The same pattern appears from the Kyrgyz side. Its trade with Uzbekistan rose 40.3%, while trade with Tajikistan expanded 3.3-fold. By contrast, Kyrgyz trade with Kazakhstan slipped 0.6%.

That revival in Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan trade is one of the report’s most notable developments, even though volumes remain small compared with the region’s dominant bilateral flows.

Read further: Uzbekistan’s trade turnover grows 7.4% YoY in H1 2026

The region is integrating, but unevenly

Within Central Asia, the trade balances are strikingly uneven.

Kazakhstan ran a $3.2 billion regional trade surplus, exporting more than three times as much to Central Asia as it imported. Turkmenistan was also a net exporter.

Uzbekistan, by contrast, posted a $1.4 billion deficit with its Central Asian neighbours, despite strong export growth. Kyrgyzstan’s deficit stood at $942 million, while Tajikistan’s reached $977 million.

The backstory: Tajikistan’s foreign trade tops $6.8 bn in first half of 2026

The figures indicate that deeper regional trade is not producing the same outcome for everyone. Kazakhstan is using Central Asia primarily as an export market, while Uzbekistan plays a more balanced role as both buyer and seller. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the region remains especially important as a source of imported goods.