Trump’s diesel deal: How much fuel does Russia supply to the world?

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Managing Editor, English editorial team
AI-generated image: Kursiv Uzbekistan

Trump’s diesel deal with Russia puts a major fuel supplier back in focus: Russian shipments averaged 817,000 barrels of diesel and gasoil a day in 2025, before plunging to just 80,000 barrels in 2026, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters. Washington’s temporary sanctions relief could help restore some supplies, but damaged refineries and Russia’s domestic needs will influence how much fuel reaches global markets.

This scale helps to explain President Donald Trump‘s decision to loosen sanctions on Russian diesel. On October 9, he announced a stunning agreement with Vladimir Putin in which Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and global markets, equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels of fuel. 

Russia has traditionally been the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the US. But Ukrainian attacks on refineries and Moscow’s own export restrictions have sharply reduced the fuel available to overseas buyers, as S&P Global explains. Restoring permission to trade is only part of restoring supply.

The backstory: Why US diesel prices have reached record highs

How much did Russian diesel exports fall?

Earlier in September, Putin banned publication of fuel export and refinery data, with information that Russian companies disclose about their operations being the sole exclusion.

Our estimates below track diesel and gasoil together, rather than diesel alone:

PeriodAverage shipments, barrels a daySource
Full year 2025817,000Kpler, reported by Reuters
June 2026400,000Kpler, reported by Reuters
July 1–10, 2026234,000Kpler, reported by Reuters
August 1–7, 202680,000Bloomberg, cited by OilPrice

The brief July and August snapshots do not represent full-month averages or estimates of today’s exports.

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The contraction continued to affect individual routes. S&P Global recorded no Russian diesel or gasoil shipments from Black Sea ports in the week to September 24. That does not mean exports from the whole country stopped.

A September report from the International Energy Agency found that combined net diesel and gasoil exports from Russia and Gulf countries were 1.6 million barrels a day lower in August than in February. In February, those suppliers accounted for almost 45% of global seaborne trade in these fuels. 

Read more: What US sanctions on Russia could mean for Central Asia

Diesel and gasoil account for nearly 30% of global oil demand, according to the same IEA report. Their shortage therefore reaches well beyond filling stations, affecting transport, farming and industrial costs.

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