Trump’s diesel deal: How much fuel does Russia supply to the world?
Trump’s diesel deal with Russia puts a major fuel supplier back in focus: Russian shipments averaged 817,000 barrels of diesel and gasoil a day in 2025, before plunging to just 80,000 barrels in 2026, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters. Washington’s temporary sanctions relief could help restore some supplies, but damaged refineries and Russia’s domestic needs will influence how much fuel reaches global markets.
This scale helps to explain President Donald Trump‘s decision to loosen sanctions on Russian diesel. On October 9, he announced a stunning agreement with Vladimir Putin in which Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and global markets, equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels of fuel.
Trump on Russia: The oil deal with Russia is a big deal. That’s massive amounts of oil coming into our country. I want to thank President Putin, to be honest with you. https://t.co/sQhIsvk2Am
— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 9, 2026
Russia has traditionally been the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the US. But Ukrainian attacks on refineries and Moscow’s own export restrictions have sharply reduced the fuel available to overseas buyers, as S&P Global explains. Restoring permission to trade is only part of restoring supply.
The backstory: Why US diesel prices have reached record highs
How much did Russian diesel exports fall?
Earlier in September, Putin banned publication of fuel export and refinery data, with information that Russian companies disclose about their operations being the sole exclusion.
Our estimates below track diesel and gasoil together, rather than diesel alone:
| Period | Average shipments, barrels a day | Source |
| Full year 2025 | 817,000 | Kpler, reported by Reuters |
| June 2026 | 400,000 | Kpler, reported by Reuters |
| July 1–10, 2026 | 234,000 | Kpler, reported by Reuters |
| August 1–7, 2026 | 80,000 | Bloomberg, cited by OilPrice |
The brief July and August snapshots do not represent full-month averages or estimates of today’s exports.
Kursiv explains: Houthis pile pressure on Bab el-Mandeb. Here is what it means for oil markets and global trade
The contraction continued to affect individual routes. S&P Global recorded no Russian diesel or gasoil shipments from Black Sea ports in the week to September 24. That does not mean exports from the whole country stopped.
Diesel. 🇷🇺🤝🇺🇸
— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) October 9, 2026
A September report from the International Energy Agency found that combined net diesel and gasoil exports from Russia and Gulf countries were 1.6 million barrels a day lower in August than in February. In February, those suppliers accounted for almost 45% of global seaborne trade in these fuels.
Read more: What US sanctions on Russia could mean for Central Asia
Diesel and gasoil account for nearly 30% of global oil demand, according to the same IEA report. Their shortage therefore reaches well beyond filling stations, affecting transport, farming and industrial costs.
