Uzbekistan holds key rate at 14% and raises inflation forecast

The Central Bank chose to keep its key interest rate at 14% on 4 November after considering a cut to 13.5%. The financial regulator also raised its year-end inflation forecast to about 7% from 6.5%, citing strong domestic demand and risks from volatile global food and energy prices.

The rate has stood at 14% since March 2025. Annual inflation edged up to 6.4% in September from 6.2% in August as fruit, vegetables, fuel and some services became pricier. Core inflation held at 5.5%.

Deputy governor Nodirbek Achilov told reporters that the board could consider a rate cut if inflation expectations, core inflation, and conditions in the foreign exchange market continued to improve. The next rate decision is due on 16 December.

Read more: Money transfers to Uzbekistan rise as inflows pass $15bn

The economy grew 8.3% year on year in the first nine months, prompting the bank to raise its full-year growth forecast to around 8%. It expects inflation to return to its 5% target by the end of 2027.

The Central Bank last changed its key rate in March 2025, raising it from 13.5% to 14% after annual inflation reached 10.1% in February. At the time, the bank pointed to rising remittances and consumer lending as factors driving up demand and keeping service inflation high.