Inflation in Uzbekistan is driven almost equally by demand and supply factors. According to the Central Bank, demand accounts for 49% of price growth, while supply explains 51%. At the same time, the dominant drivers have changed from year to year, ranging from the pandemic to tariff increases.
During the pandemic, inflation was mainly driven by supply-side factors. Disruptions to supply chains and production stoppages pushed food prices higher. The sharpest increases were recorded for grain, flour, meat and dairy products.
After restrictions were lifted, consumer spending increased. Government expenditure and household incomes also rose. As a result, inflation...