How Uzbekistan is implementing the Paris Agreement

Uzbekistan signed the Paris Agreement on 19 April 2017 and ratified it on 2 October 2018, committing to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 10% from 2010 levels by 2030. Subsequently, the targets became even more ambitious: in October 2021, at the COP26 conference in Glasgow, Uzbekistan announced its intention to reduce the carbon intensity of its GDP by 35% by 2030 compared to 2010.

International commitments and national priorities

National strategic planning documents have set additional targets. These include doubling the energy efficiency of the economy, reducing carbon intensity, bringing the share of renewable energy sources (RES) to 25% in the structure of electricity production, ensuring 100% access to modern energy supplies for the population, increasing the sustainability of industry through energy-efficient technologies, and expanding the use of environmentally friendly modes of transport. A separate set of tasks is related to the rational use of water resources, increasing crop yields, achieving a neutral level of land degradation, and increasing agricultural productivity by 20–25%.

In this way, the country is simultaneously addressing its international commitments and implementing its national strategy for transitioning to a green economy.

Greenhouse gas emissions dynamics

Despite the targets set, between 2010 and 2022, total GHG emissions in Uzbekistan increased by 21.5% (excluding absorption in the land use and forestry sector) and by 16.7% when this factor is taken into account. At first glance, these figures seem to contradict previous commitments. However, there was also significant economic growth: the country’s GDP increased from $60.9 billion in 2010 to $115 billion in 2024. As a result, the carbon intensity of GDP decreased by 37.2% (or 40.1% when natural absorption of emissions is taken into account). Thus, the target of reducing carbon intensity by 35% by 2030 has already been formally achieved. This was due not so much to technological changes as to the faster growth of GDP relative to emissions.

Dynamics of energy intensity and carbon intensity indicators

The energy intensity of GDP also shows positive dynamics: between 2010 and 2021, it decreased by a factor of 1.8. However, when analysing this indicator, it is necessary to take into account the calculation methodology: data on purchasing power parity (PPP) and nominal GDP differ by more than three times, which directly affects the interpretation of the results. From this, we can conclude that the doubling of energy efficiency indicators by 2030 in relation to GDP in Uzbekistan was mainly due to GDP growth, rather than a reduction in energy consumption and the widespread implementation of energy efficiency measures (which requires significant investment in the modernisation of the worn-out engineering energy system and the improvement of the energy efficiency of buildings).

Development of renewable energy sources

One of the most notable areas of environmental transformation has been the active development of renewable energy sources. Since 2018, the country has consistently set targets, and in recent years, the pace of commissioning new capacity has been particularly high.

In 2022, the first solar power stations in the Navoi and Samarkand regions produced 434 million kWh of electricity. In 2023, the volume of generation amounted to 576.9 million kWh. In 2024, the figure reached 4.86 billion kWh. Thus, in two years, electricity generation from solar and wind sources increased more than tenfold. As of September 2025, there are 12 solar and 5 wind power plants operating in the country with a total installed capacity of 4,682 MW. Taking into account hydroelectric power plants, the share of renewable energy sources in the generation structure was 22%, which is almost twice as high as in 2022 (12%).

The current pace of renewable energy development in Uzbekistan suggests that the country will be able to achieve a 25% share of renewable energy as early as 2026, i.e., even before 2030, as set out in the targets.

Dynamics of energy intensity and carbon intensity indicators

At the same time, the high growth rates of renewable energy sources necessitate addressing new challenges. For example, the modernisation of energy infrastructure (especially in terms of electricity transmission and distribution) is not designed to transmit the increased volumes of electricity from such rapidly growing renewable energy generation facilities.  Modernising existing infrastructure and building new power lines will also reduce losses in power grids and increase the efficiency of electricity transmission.

In addition, it is important to introduce new equipment in the form of smart devices in distribution grids, which will help to improve the efficiency of electricity distribution from RES (which depend on weather conditions, including solar activity, wind speed, etc.) and maintain the balance of the energy system during peak demand and supply hours, including by using manoeuvring capacity from fossil fuel generation facilities.

Currently, Uzbekistan faces systemic constraints, primarily due to the underdevelopment of its regulatory framework and the lack of detailed information in the calculation and statistical accounting of GHG emissions.

1. There is still no clearly defined list of companies required to provide annual reports on direct emissions (Scope 1), despite the adoption of the law on emissions regulation in July 2025.
2. National coefficients for calculating indirect emissions from heat and electricity consumption (Scope 2) have not been developed. This requires comprehensive work with data on the structure of the fuel balance.
3. In agriculture, there are no established methodologies for several emission categories, particularly for nitrous oxide emissions from soils and fertilizer use. There are virtually no statistics on biomass.
4. Emissions from the incineration and processing of solid municipal waste are not yet assessed in the national reporting system.

Without addressing these gaps, the implementation of international commitments will be only partially formal, and the level of emissions risks will be underestimated.

Final conclusions

To date, Uzbekistan has made significant progress in developing renewable energy and reducing the carbon intensity of its economy. In terms of carbon intensity and energy intensity (relative to GDP at purchasing power parity), the country has already achieved its previously stated target, although this is largely due to Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in recent years rather than a direct reduction in GHG emissions and increased energy efficiency in the country’s main economic sectors. Further implementation of ambitious targets related to real reductions in GHG emissions and fossil fuel consumption will require improvements to the regulatory framework, systematic monitoring, and the development of national methodologies for various sectors of the economy.

The transition to a green economy model remains not only achievable but also a necessary condition for sustainable economic growth in Uzbekistan. However, success will depend not only on the pace of commissioning new renewable energy generation facilities, but also on the quality of statistical accounting, transparency of reporting, and coordination of actions by all stakeholders.