Cheaper gold, stronger miners? Fitch sees room for both in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan’s major miners could increase cash flows even if gold prices fall, helping protect their credit ratings, according to Fitch Ratings. Higher production and new projects should cushion the impact of weaker prices.

Speaking at the Fitch on Uzbekistan conference in Tashkent on 27 October, Yulia Buchneva, senior director for EMEA natural resources, said the agency also expected economic diversification to help limit the consequences for the country’s sovereign rating.

According to Kursiv Uzbekistan, Fitch’s calculations assumed gold at $4,500 an ounce in 2026, falling to $2,700 in 2029. That represents a 40% reduction, but Buchneva stressed that these are assumptions for assessing creditworthiness, rather than precise market forecasts.

Read more: Uzbekistan becomes world’s third-largest gold buyer amid surging mining costs

Production matters alongside price

Fitch expects investment programmes at Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company (NMMC) and Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex (AMMC) to support cash-flow growth towards 2029–2030 through higher output, new deposits and diversification.

Its assessments also consider whether companies can adjust investment spending, dividends and financial policies. Those choices affect how much cash remains available to meet debt obligations when commodity prices weaken.

Read more: Uzbek gold giant’s profit jumps 57% as mining costs surge

Fitch’s gold-price assumptions fall to $3,800 in 2027 and $3,300 in 2028 before reaching $2,700 in 2029. Its longer-term, mid-cycle assumption is lower still, at $2,300. The conservative approach is intended to prevent ratings from moving with every swing in bullion prices.

Rating resilience does not remove revenue risk

Lower prices could also reduce Uzbekistan’s export receipts and mining-related budget revenues, depending on production, costs and profitability.

Buchneva did not quantify the potential budget impact, but her assessment therefore offers reassurance about credit resilience, rather than a guarantee that cheaper gold would leave companies or public finances untouched.

Read more: How Fitch ratings’ 2026 Outlook for «CIS+» banks reflects on Uzbekistan’s banking sector